Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: Wednesday (5/14)
Call in sick. We’ve got 17 MLB games on today’s slate throughout the entire day. After looking through all of the MLB player props, I’ve listed my three favorites below.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Kerry Carpenter and the Detroit Tigers battle Hunter Dobbins of the Boston Red Sox. Dobbins is a right-handed pitcher who has allowed a .357 ISO and wOBA of .394 against his last 28 lefties. This season, he’s allowed a .308 ISO and wOBA of .394 to 39 lefties.
Ultimately, Dobbins has struck out only 17.9% of lefties this year. But even that rate has dropped to 14.3% over the last 30 days.
Meanwhile, Carpenter is a left-hander slugger who has smashed a .270 ISO and wOBA of .419 against his last 78 righties. He’s struck out only 10.3% of the time, while hitting 56.1% of hard contact and a 13.6% barrel percentage. Carpenter should get a few cracks at slugging one deep against Dobbins. Let’s take a chance.
Chris Bassitt Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-112)
Chris Bassitt has a 25% strikeout rate against his first 196 batters this season for the Toronto Blue Jays. He’s also limited those 196 batters to a .146 ISO and wOBA of .308 with only 4.1% of walks. Most importantly, he’s thrown more than 95 pitches per start this season.
Meanwhile, Bassitt goes up against a Rays lineup that has hit a .103 ISO and wOBA of .273 against righties over the last 30 days. This projected lineup has also struck out 27.3% of the time against righties.
In the Rays’ lineup, six batters have struck out at least 25.4% of the time against righties in the last 30 days. Bassitt has plenty of potential to add at least six strikeouts tonight.
Adolis Garcia Over 1.5 Total Bases (-130)
Over the last 30 days, Adolis Garcia has only added a .169 ISO and wOBA of .265 with 28.6% of strikeouts against righties as a right-handed batter. However, he’s still hit 39.6% of fly balls and 49.1% of hard contact against righties during this time. He’s also added a 15.1% barrel percentage, but has been unlucky with a .260 batting average on balls in play (BABIP).
Tonight, Garcia won’t have to worry about strikeouts. He’s taking on Antonio Senzatela of the Rockies, who has earned just 11.3% of strikeouts against righties over the last 30 days. Those last 53 righties have also hit a .347 ISO and wOBA of .453 against Senzatela, while adding nearly 30% of fly balls and more than 27% of line drives against him this season.
Look for Garcia to break out against Senzatela. If he can put the ball in play each time he faces Senzatela, that will be trouble for the Rockies.