Top 3 MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: Wednesday (5/7)
We’ve got another full slate of games on the horizon today. Therefore, I’m firing on my three favorite MLB player props for tonight.
Tail along below.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Max Fried Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150)
Max Fried has been one of the best pitchers this season. He’s limited his first 181 batters to a .078 ISO and wOBA of .243, with 52% of ground balls induced and only 18.9% of line drives allowed.
However, he’s still only struck out 21.5% of batters this year. That’s actually below the average. He’s added just 19.5% of strikeouts against righties and will likely face a Padres lineup with seven righties in it.
As a projected lineup, the Padres have struck out only 13.4% of the time against lefties over the last 30 days. Only Fernando Tatis Jr. has struck out more than 20.7% of the time against lefties in that lineup.
While Fried could still put up zeros, it’s unlikely he’ll add a high strikeout rate against the Padres tonight. I’m on the under.
Jonathan Cannon Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125)
The White Sox will send Jonathan Cannon to the mound tonight. He’s a right-handed pitcher who has added only 18.9% of strikeouts this season. Additionally, Cannon has given up a .160 ISO and wOBA of .334 with 10.1% of walks to begin the year.
Tonight, he’ll battle a Royals projected lineup that has struck out a combined 17.3% of the time. Only Drew Waters has struck out more than 17.9% of the time in the Royals’ lineup.
Kansas City doesn’t have an insane amount of power. This team doesn’t even get on base at a high rate. But it’s still likely the Royals will put the ball in play against Cannon.
If anything, the Royals have walked 6.7% of the time, meaning they’re pretty aggressive at the plate against righties. Let’s side with Cannon to go under 3.5 strikeouts.
Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125)
The Baltimore Orioles will start Charlie Morton at pitcher for tonight’s game against the Minnesota Twins. The veteran right-hander has allowed a .279 ISO and wOBA of .421 to his first 82 lefties. He’s also walked 19.5% of lefties and has added below 16% of strikeouts against them this season.
Beyond that, Morton has allowed 38.5% of fly balls and has induced only 30.8% of ground balls against lefties this year. He’s also allowed more than 61% of hard contact against lefties.
Meanwhile, Trevor Larnach will likely lead things off for the Twins. The left-handed batter has added a .165 and .321 wOBA against his first 91 righties. He’s also hit 27.4% of line drives and 54.8% of hard contact against righties this season.
Larnach should get some good opportunities against Morton tonight.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday: