Top 3 MLB Player Props & Bets: Picks for Tuesday (6/17)
From a Major League Baseball player prop perspective, several of the sport’s biggest names turned in great performances over the last week.
Jacob deGrom has now allowed two or fewer runs in 12 of his 14 starts, Spencer Strider had 13 of Atlanta’s 19 strikeouts (a club record for a nine-inning game) and Paul Skenes lowered his ERA to 1.78, which is the best through 15 starts by a pitcher 24 years old or younger since 2005.
We look to start another profitable week with today’s trio of MLB player props. Read on for our top MLB player props and bets for Tuesday, June 17th.
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Tuesday's Best MLB Player Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run Player Props (+280)
Kyle Schwarber’s career numbers against Marlins righty Cal Quantrill in many ways embody his all-or-nothing approach at the plate at times. Schwarber is batting just .176 in 17 career at-bats with seven strikeouts against Quantrill, but all three of his hits against the righty have been solo home runs.
Schwarber is fourth in the Majors with 22 home runs, despite belting just three so far in June. But two of those have come within the last five games. This is great value for Schwarber to continue his recent hot streak against a pitcher who ranks in the 24th percentile or worse in barrels, ground ball rate and xERA.
Quantrill has allowed six of his eight home runs this season to right-handed hitters, but Schwarber’s career success from a power standpoint is enough for us to back him to homer at these odds.
Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 Runs Player Props (-105)
There are not many hitters hotter than Reds slugger Elly De La Cruz at the moment. De La Cruz has homered in four straight games, and has four multi-hit games in his last six while slashing .378/.481/.800 this month.
De La Cruz has not just plated himself with home runs, as the rest of the Reds lineup has done well to drive him in when he reaches base. De La Cruz has scored eight runs in the last four games and has at least one run scored in 15 of his last 21 games, which includes a stretch of seven consecutive games with at least one run scored in late May.
Twins righty David Festa’s 5.38 xERA is much worse than his actual 4.76 ERA. Given that he ranks in the 11th percentile or worse in barrels and ground ball rate, De La Cruz should get on base early and often and has a great chance to cross the plate, even if he does not homer for the fifth straight game.
Jack Leiter Under 3.5 Strikeouts Player Props (+130)
A quick look at Rangers second-year righty Jack Leiter’s innings pitched lately would suggest the organization is already starting a plan to manage his innings early. However, his pitch count suggests otherwise, as Leiter has thrown 87 or more pitches in seven of his eight starts since the calendar turned to May. Thus, Leiter has not been all that economical with his pitches, considering he has pitched into the sixth inning just twice in 11 starts.
With Leiter’s ceiling for outs recorded lowered, producing a high strikeout total is also a daunting task. That is especially true when facing a Royals lineup that has the second-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching (17.9%) this season.
Leiter has recorded four or fewer strikeouts in seven of his 11 starts this season, and he should be in for another battle in each at-bat against Kansas City’s pesky hitters.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.