Top 3 MLB Player Props & Bets: Saturday (5/31)
After our week started with a tremendous 7-2 run through our MLB best bets, we continued that momentum with a clean sweep of Thursday’s MLB player props and bets. Now we are looking to finish off the month of May on a heater with another trio of wagers. Read on for our top MLB player props and bets for Saturday, May 31st.
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Saturday's Best MLB Player Props & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tarik Skubal Under 6.5 strikeouts (-105)
Reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal is coming off the best performance of his career. He threw his first career complete game shutout, and did so on just 94 pitches, which those in baseball have coined “a Maddux”, where a pitcher throws a complete game in fewer than 100 pitches.
The historic part about Skubal’s complete game shutout was he recorded the most strikeouts (13) in any complete game that ended with fewer than 100 pitches. He also threw the fastest pitch of his career on the final pitch, which suggested he had plenty more in the tank if the game went longer.
However, we are taking advantage of Skubal’s recent press and this overinflated line, and feel good about the chances of him staying under his projected strikeout total coming off the complete game. He now faces a division rival in the Royals who are familiar with his arsenal. Current Royals hitters have combined for a respectable .258 batting average in 132 combined at-bats against the southpaw, with a 31.8% strikeout rate in that span.
Kansas City entered the weekend ranked in the top 10 in the majors in lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching (22%). Its top-seven ranking in BABIP in that split also suggests it can limit Skubal’s outing and make him work harder than he usually does.
Brandon Nimmo Over 0.5 RBIs (+155)
Mets slugger Brandon Nimmo entered the weekend with much more success from an RBI standpoint on the road, as 17 of his 25 RBIs came away from Citi Field. And despite batting just .225 with a .289 on-base percentage, he continues to bat in a prime RBI spot with 45 of his 50 starts entering this series in the No. 2, 4, or 5 hole in the lineup.
I am not discouraged by the fact that Nimmo has gone 10 straight games without an RBI (his longest streak of the season), as he has two home runs in eight career at-bats against today’s opposing starting pitcher, Antonio Senzatela.
Senzatela is not just a victim of pitching at Coors Field, as he has made just one quality start in 11 outings this season. His road ERA is 5.32 while pitching to an eye-popping .410 OBA.
Senzatela has allowed a .353/.386/.655 slash line to current Mets hitters, which suggests there should be plenty of traffic on the basepaths when Nimmo comes to the plate.
Landon Knack Under 2.5 walks (-195)
Dodgers righty Landon Knack was trending the wrong direction after pitching to an 8.38 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, .317 OBA, and allowing a 1.047 OPS in consecutive rough outings against the Athletics and Diamondbacks. But Knack turned in arguably his most impressive performance of the season in this same spot in the nationally televised 7:15 p.m. ET game on the road against the Mets last week, allowing just one earned run and recording a season-high 18 outs.
Knack had walked multiple batters in three of his previous five starts, but he threw 64% of his 91 pitches against the Mets for strikes. The Yankees entered this series leading the majors in walk rate (10.5%). But barring Knack pitching around or walking Aaron Judge in key spots later in the game, I trust he will continue to fill the strike zone much like he did on the road against a solid Mets lineup last week.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.