Top 3 MLB Betting Trends & Picks: Friday (5/30)
After a light day yesterday, we have a full 15-game slate tonight. I used our MLB betting systems to find some insanely valuable plays for tonight’s games.
Check them out below.
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Friday’s Best MLB Betting System Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Home dog over no
The “Home dog over no” system has added a 3.3% return on investment (ROI) over the last year across 149 bets. It’s only won 44% of the time but has earned nearly five units of profit. To meet the criteria, a team must be at home when the previous game went over the total. Additionally, the same team can’t have covered the spread, and the game must take place in the regular season.
That checks out for the Dodgers.
The Dodgers are at home facing Max Fried and the New York Yankees. However, anytime you can get the Dodgers at plus-money odds at home, it’s a must-bet. After all, the Dodgers’ projected lineup has hit a .227 ISO and a wOBA of .396 against lefties over the last month. The team has also struck out below 18% of the time against lefties in that same span. Los Angeles has seen Fried plenty of times when they faced the Braves over the years. Fried’s got good stuff, but the Dodgers will be prepared.
On the other hand, Tony Gonsolin will pitch for the Dodgers. He’s not quite Fried. But he’s limited his last 47 righties to a .140 ISO and wOBA of .281. The Yankees will likely have four righties in the lineup, including Aaron Judge and Paul Goldschmidt. If Gonsolin can shut those two down, he’ll be alright.
Let’s back the Dodgers tonight.
Pick: Dodgers Moneyline (+110)
warm weather overs
It’s about to be June. Good baseball weather is coming.
The “warm weather overs” system has added a 3% ROI over the last year with nearly 18 units of profit on 592 wagers. These bets have won 51% of the time.
To qualify for this system, the game must be played in a high-temperature environment during the regular season.
The Nationals and Diamondbacks are playing in Arizona’s Chase Field. There should be some hot weather in Arizona.
Jake Irvin will pitch for the Nationals. He’s allowed his first 160 lefties to hit a .207 ISO and wOBA of .326 this season. Diamondbacks lefties have totaled a .194 ISO and woBA of .335 against righties over the last 30 days. Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Josh Naylor, Pavin Smith and Geraldo Perdomo are lefties to watch against Irvin.
On the other hand, it’ll be Merrill Kelly pitching for the Diamondbacks. While he’s limited opposing batters in ISO and wOBA numbers, he’s failed to add a high strikeout rate. In nice, hot weather, the Nationals should be able to put the ball in play. That can only help Washington’s cause. Plus, the Nationals have six batters hitting a wOBA of at least .314 against righties over the last 30 days.
Arizona will likely put up more offense, but the Nationals should also produce some runs.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (-120)
Home underdogs
The final system is the “home underdogs” system, which looks to bet on favorites on the run line at odds of -130 to -101.
The Orioles haven’t been a fun wager this year. However, they’re facing the Chicago White Sox this weekend. Baltimore needs to capitalize on the matchup.
The White Sox will pitch Sean Burke, who has allowed a .194 ISO and wOBA of .344 to his first 242 batters this season. Burke has struck out only 16.1% of batters and has walked 12.4%. Ultimately, Baltimore has six batters with a high ISO over the last 30 days against righties in the projected lineup. I’d expect some home runs out of this Orioles lineup tonight.
On the other hand, it’ll be Zach Eflin for Baltimore. Eflin is a veteran right-handed pitcher who has struggled significantly. However, the Chicago lineup has, too. For what it’s worth, Eflin has kept walks down to 3.6%. He likely won’t give up any free passes to the White Sox.
Chicago’s projected lineup has contributed a .128 ISO and wOBA of .315 against righties in the last 30 days. I’ll give Eflin and the Orioles a chance in this system.
Pick: Orioles -1.5 (-110)