Top 4 MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (7/4)
There are few better ways to ring in the Fourth of July than with some afternoon baseball, and we begin our MLB Best Bets with the first game of the day from our nation’s capital with an early 11:05 a.m. ET first pitch between the Red Sox and Nationals. In honor of the holiday, we make our top four picks for the fourth.
Read on for our top MLB picks and predictions for Friday, July 4.
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Friday's Best MLB Picks & Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Boston Red Sox (-111) at Washington Nationals (-109) | O/U 8.5 (-116/-105)
Lucas Giolito's early season turnaround has been nothing short of remarkable. Through his first seven starts, Giolito pitched to a 6.42 ERA through 33 2/3 innings, while allowing a .324 opponents' average and 1.63 WHIP. Over his last four starts, those numbers have improved remarkably to a 0.72 ERA over 25 innings, while allowing a .170 opponents' average and 0.88 WHIP.
Giolito's recent success should propel Boston to an early lead. The biggest reason for limiting this wager to the first five innings is that Washington has eight wins this season when trailing in the eighth inning or later (it had seven such wins all of last season).
This play also comes with confidence since the Nationals have trailed after three innings in six of their last seven games as underdogs against AL opponents.
Pick: Red Sox First Five Innings Moneyline (+100)
Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 RBIs (+115)
The Cardinals are 1-3 in Miles Mikolas' last four starts, which includes losses to two division rivals in that span. His numbers at Wrigley Field on paper look respectable (3-3, 3.77 ERA in 12 appearances), but he has surrendered 11 runs in his last 19 2/3 innings spanning four starts over the last two seasons, with most of his success there coming early in his career.
Mikolas has allowed a .318/.341/.465 slash line in 157 combined at-bats to current Cubs hitters. Pete Crow-Armstrong is one of two hitters who has homered off Mikolas in their careers, and he has done so twice in just four at-bats.
I would not put anyone off backing Crow-Armstrong's +330 odds to homer again, considering Mikolas has allowed at least one home run in five consecutive starts and six of seven. However, Mikolas' recent struggles at Wrigley Field suggest there should be plenty of traffic on the basepaths when Crow-Armstrong bats, so I am backing PCA to drive in a run for the third time in six games.
New York Yankees (-105) at New York Mets (-115) | O/U 9 (-121/-101)
The Yankees are scuffling, having lost four straight games and 14 of 20, while watching their 4.5-game lead in the AL East disappear in that span. While the Mets have not been much better going 5-14 in their last 19, they may have found something with a mid-week lineup tweak.
In Wednesday's 7-3 win in the second game of a doubleheader against Milwaukee, the Mets moved Francisco Lindor out of the leadoff spot for the first time since 2024. The team responded with seven runs, while Lindor collected three hits, and new leadoff man Brandon Nimmo hit a grand slam after totaling just four RBI in the previous 15 games.
The Mets were likely reluctant to move Lindor out of the leadoff spot this season, given their splits with him batting leadoff versus other spots in the lineup. New York went 69-49 after May 17 when Lindor was moved to leadoff spot, and averaged five runs per game with a .760 team OPS. Before the move, the Mets were just 20-24 while averaging 4.2 runs per game and a team .666 OPS when he wasn't leadoff.
Despite those splits, the Yankees bullpen is running on fumes after the team surrendered 36 runs in the four-game series against the Blue Jays, which tips the scale in the Mets' favor.
Pick: Mets Moneyline (-115)
Yandy Diaz Over 0.5 Runs (-105)
The Tampa Bay Rays slugger entered Wednesday with a 26-game on-base streak. During that span, he batted .408 with 11 extra-base hits, had 15 RBIs, scored 17 runs, and had a .483 on-base percentage and .641 slugging percentage. He has never faced Twins righty Chris Paddack in his career, but of all the Diaz props I am enticed by, his runs scored prop makes the most sense, considering the Twins have allowed five-plus runs in six of Paddack’s last eight starts.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01