Top 5 MLB Betting Picks for Saturday, July 25

Opening Day (even though it was split up over two days) is in the books, and every team has played their first games of the season. Though it is a small sample size, we have already seen certain trends develop for how teams are attacking the early part of the season. Starting pitchers are being stretched out, and managers are relieving them after roughly 70-80 pitches. We even saw our first extra-inning game between the Angels and Athletics. Even though each team was able to start the inning with a runner on second base, both teams eschewed a sacrifice bunt and instead chose to play for a big inning.

As will be for every Saturday of the season, we have a full slate of 15 games to sift through for our betting purposes. It marks the first day of the season thus far where every MLB team will be in action.

Here are my top MLB betting plays for Saturday (Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook):

Check out our daily MLB consensus game odds here >>

Pittsburgh (+134)

The Cardinals opened as -160 favorites, which has since lowered to -152 despite 68% of the bets being placed on St. Louis. That indicates sharp money is coming in on the Pirates, and we are happy to jump on board. Pittsburgh showed some resiliency in their Opening Night loss, twice battling back from three-run deficits before ultimately falling 5-4. Two of the biggest bats in Pittsburgh’s lineup has had great success over Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright. Josh Bell has a .300 average and .900 OPS in his career when facing Wainwright while Adam Frazier has homered twice and has a .906 OPS against him. We also have confidence in Pirates starter Trevor Williams, who was 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in two starts against St. Louis last year.

Toronto-Tampa Bay UNDER 8.5 (-102)

With the juice on the over at -120, oddsmakers anticipate the public will pound the over especially considering both teams’ starters are not household names. Matt Shoemaker makes his Blue Jays debut after signing as a free agent from the Angels. He had a great start to the 2019 season, going 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA in five starts. However, an ACL tear kept him out the remainder of the season. Opposing Shoemaker will be lefty Ryan Yarbrough, who has pitched very well against Toronto. In 20 1/3 career innings, Yarbrough is 3-1 with a 2.18 ERA and a .197 BAA. Many bettors may have been surprised to see the offensive outburst last night’s game produced with a pair of aces in Ryu and Morton on the mound. With lesser-known but still effective pitchers going today, we will choose the contrarian play and take the under 8.5 runs.

Colorado-Texas UNDER 5.5 1st 5 Innings (-128)

Those who believe in “regression to the mean” will likely think the Rockies and Rangers are due for an offensive explosion after last night’s 1-0 pitchers duel. However, look for this to be more of a trend in Texas’s new Globe Life Field as it is playing bigger than the Ballpark in Arlington, according to many players’ accounts. The Rockies should continue their struggles against left-handing pitching when Texas sends Mike Minor to the mound. Colorado went 25-36 against lefties last year. In addition, Rockies hitters who have faced Minor before are a combined .138 with a paltry .175 OBP. Rockies starter Jon Gray went an impressive 11-8 with a 3.84 ERA last year despite pitching in hitter-friendly Coors Field. Instead of worrying about how the bullpens will perform late in the game, lock in the under for the first five innings.

Oakland ML (-140)

As of this writing, a whopping 90% of the money bet on the Angels-Athletics game thus far has been bet on the underdog Angels (+122). I am happy to fade the public and bet the Athletics to follow up their dramatic opening day win. The A’s send Sean Manaea to the mound, who is looking to maintain his momentum from 2019. Manaea only made five regular-season starts last year as he rehabbed from shoulder surgery in the prior offseason. However, he made the most of those five starts, posting a 4-0 record and a 1.21 ERA. His 9.1 strikeouts per nine innings last year is exactly the same as two-time Cy Young award winner Justin Verlander’s career average. The fact that Manaea was able to be lights out from the start of the season bodes well for his chances to start 2020 off on the right foot.

Washington Nationals Total Runs UNDER 3.5 (+100)

With Stephen Strasburg toeing the rubber for the Nationals, it is a risky proposition to bet the Yankees in this contest. However, one play I love focuses on the Nationals team total. Washington’s offense was already going to have a tough time replacing Anthony Rendon’s bat in the middle of the lineup. Now that Juan Soto has tested positive for the coronavirus, finding power and production in the rest of the lineup got even more difficult.

Outside of Adam Eaton’s solo home run on Opening Day, the Nationals offense could not get anything going. Sure, much of that is due to the fact that the Yankees started Gerrit Cole. However, tonight’s starter James Paxton looks to pick up right where last season ended. Paxton went 10-0 with a 2.51 over his final 11 starts in 2019. With a rested Yankees bullpen that did not have to throw a single inning on Thursday to back Paxton up, look for manager Aaron Boone to mix and match a bevy of solid relievers, all of whom will make it difficult for the Nationals to manage many runs.

View more game odds and place bets at FanDuel Sportsbook >>

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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.