Top 5 MLB Betting Picks for Saturday, September 19th
Starting this past week and heading into this week, you will hear of more and more teams clinching playoff berths, lock in their seed for the playoffs, or be eliminated from the playoff picture altogether. While some bettors may think the wagering gets easier at that point considering fewer teams have anything to play for, it can actually cause a betting nightmare. The guessing game of who is motivated to play spoiler or which team that clinched a playoff berth is resting or playing starters can be exhausting. Thus, it may be time to change your betting strategy altogether.
Over the next couple of days, you will notice different strategies to try and combat the unknowns as we head down the stretch. However, it is still important that our bets return good value. Therefore, the majority of today’s plays will be over/unders and team totals.
Here are my MLB top betting plays for Saturday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook):
YTD: 77-70-2 (+13.19 units)
Check out our daily MLB consensus game odds here >>
Blue Jays-Phillies OVER 9 runs (+102)
If you have not been paying attention lately, the Toronto Blue Jays pitching staff has been historically brutal. They allowed 43 runs and a major league record 19 home runs combined in three-straight games to the New York Yankees. Now they are coming off a doubleheader against the Phillies in which they allowed 15 runs over 14 innings. I realize that ace Hyun-Jin Ryu (4-1, 3.00 ERA) is starting today and that he is a much better pitcher than who has gotten roughed up lately. However, even he is prone to the occasional blow-up, as he allowed five runs over five innings to the Yankees two starts ago.
Phillies starter Vince Velasquez (0-1, 6.46 ERA) is capable of allowing a ton of runs even if Ryu is on his game. In addition, the over is 7-0 in Toronto’s last seven road games. Bettors should be excited about the opportunity for plus-money odds on an over involving a team that seemingly plays slugfests on a nightly basis.
Miami Marlins ML (-110)
The Marlins have a half-game lead for second place in the NL East and an automatic playoff berth. The Nationals are 19-30 and are left with a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs. And yet, this still has the feel of a fishy line to me.
Nationals starter Patrick Corbin (2-5, 4.10 ERA) is 4-2 with a 3.36 ERA in 11 career starts against the Marlins. However, while those numbers are respectable the fact is he has been roughed up a little when pitching at Marlins Park. Corbin is 2-1 with a 4.70 ERA on the road at Miami. He is opposed by Marlins starter Pablo Lopez (4-4, 4.02 ERA). It would behoove Lopez to pitch carefully to Nationals slugger Juan Soto who is 8-for-14 with two home runs against him in his career. However, outside of Soto current Nationals have combined for seven extra-base hits in 52 career at-bats. The average bettor will see Corbin pitching on six days rest while Lopez is pitching on four days rest and give an edge to the Nationals, but I will take the more motivated Marlins who are 4-3 against the Phillies this year.
Braves-Mets OVER 9 runs (-108)
Each of the Mets’ last five home games has seen the over cash. In addition, the Braves are coming off a 15-2 trouncing of the Mets in last night’s series opener. That marks the fifth time in eight games against the Mets that the Braves have scored at least five runs, including scoring 11 or more in three of those games. Today’s pitching matchup is a battle of rookies in Atlanta’s Ian Anderson (3-0, 1.64 ERA) versus New York’s David Peterson (4-2, 4.17 ERA). It is somewhat concerning that Anderson has never faced the Mets and therefore should have an advantage early over them, but there is enough game film on both of these rookies by now that hitters should be able to formulate a plan at the plate. In addition, Peterson has allowed seven runs over his last seven innings so Atlanta should be in line for another offensive outburst.
Los Angeles Dodgers Team Total OVER 7.5 runs (-108)
Los Angeles’s team total matches some entire games’ over/unders. And yet, we still love their chances to hit the over. L.A. has scored 31 runs over their last three games, including 24 combined in the first two games of this series at Coors Field. With a game total of 12 runs and Clayton Kershaw (5-2, 2.28) on the mound, oddsmakers seem to believe the Dodgers are going to score once again in this one. And why wouldn’t they, as Colorado’s Chi Chi Gonzalez (0-1, 8.68 ERA) has been awful in his 9.1 innings of work this year. As long as the Padres are on the Dodgers’ heels in the NL West, Los Angeles will still be inserting all of their sluggers in the lineup.
Rangers-Angels UNDER 7.5 runs (-110)
The under is 1-8 in the last nine games between the Rangers and Angels at Angels stadium. With both of these teams throwing their Opening Day starters in this one, even the 7.5 total runs do not seem too low. Texas starter Lance Lynn (6-2, 2.40 ERA) allowed just one earned run over seven innings to these same Angels two starts ago. In two starts against them this year, he has allowed three runs on eight hits over 12 innings while striking out 12. Meanwhile, Angels starter Andrew Heaney allowed five runs in five innings to Texas in his last start against them on the road. However, we trust Heaney’s home/road splits as he has allowed just seven earned runs in 25.1 innings at home this year, which equates to a 2.51 ERA. Given that the Angels, are -167 moneyline favorites in this game, oddsmakers clearly trust Heaney’s chances of pitching well.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.