Top 5 MLB Betting Picks for Saturday, September 26th
Say what you will about the new expanded MLB playoff format for this year, but the fact is that has created many more meaningful games as we head into the last weekend of the season. While all the American League playoff spots have been clinched, there will still be some jockeying for playoff seeding. And on the National League side, intense games to determine the last two playoff spots should be in store. Thus, teams’ motivation levels should be something all bettors take into consideration even if oddsmakers will likely adjust as well.
Here are my MLB top betting plays for Saturday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook):
YTD: 82-80-1 (+7.85 units)
Check out our daily MLB consensus game odds here >>
New York Yankees -1.5 runs (-109)
The Yankees have now seen two consecutive opponents (Toronto and Miami) clinch playoff berths while facing them. They have now lost five of their last six games, and are in desperate need of positive momentum heading into the playoffs. You cannot tell me these games do not mean something to New York, as manager Aaron Boone was ejected in the first inning of yesterday’s game for arguing balls and strikes. The Marlins just clinched their first playoff berth since 2003. While celebrations are more muted these days due to COVID-19 concerns, Miami’s attention should be more concerned with being healthy entering the playoffs than being competitive over these next two days.
Baltimore Orioles ML (+140)
The Orioles obviously do not have anything left to play for except to guarantee they will not finish in last place of the AL East if they win one of their two remaining games. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays who are currently the No. 8 seed in the AL playoffs are just one game behind the No. 5 seed New York Yankees. Thus, it would appear that Toronto has a lot more left to play for, and that is why this line seems off. The curiously low odds may have something to do with Orioles starter John Means (2-3, 5.02 ERA) has held current Blue Jays to a .192 batting average in his limited action against them. We will take a stab with the Orioles and hope the lower odds also have something to do with the Blue Jays not caring as much about their playoff seeding as we think they do.
Texas Rangers Team Total UNDER 3.5 runs (-106)
The Texas Rangers are batting a collective .111 in 65 career plate appearances against Houston Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. If that batting average was not bad enough, their slugging percentage is .175 as they have managed just four extra-base hits (all doubles) among their seven total hits. McCullers clearly has their number and will be looking to keep Houston’s positive momentum going heading into the playoffs after they have largely underperformed to the tune of a 29-29 record so far this year.
Minnesota Twins ML (-139)
This bet is all about the teams’ motivation levels as the Cincinnati Reds can exhale after clinching a playoff berth, while the Twins are in a three-way dog fight to win the AL Central. Though Cincinnati is starting former All-Star Luis Castillo (4-5, 2.86 ERA) today, he may not have that long of a leash as the team wants him fresh for the playoffs. Meanwhile, Twins starter Michael Pineda (2-0, 3.18 ERA) is making his first career start against the Reds and should have an advantage over Cincinnati’s lineup early. The White Sox and Indians each trail the Twins by one game in the AL Central standings. Thus, if Minnesota is not careful over the next two days, they could drop all the way to the No. 7 seed and lose home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs.
San Francisco Giants ML (odds not yet posted)
The San Diego Padres are locked into the No. 4 seed of the NL playoffs, and just threw both of their aces (Chris Paddack and Dinelson Lamet) in last night’s doubleheader. Meanwhile, the Giants have a slim hold on the No. 8 seed entering Saturday and are in control of their own destiny to hold onto the last playoff spot. The Giants have their ace Johnny Cueto and are the more hungry team fighting for their playoff lives against a team counting down the days until their matchup with whoever earns the No. 5 seed begins. The Giants are still likely to be listed as underdogs, which makes the value on this play even better.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.