Top 5 MLB Betting Picks for Sunday, September 20th
A 2-2-1 day minimized the damage but still leaves us looking for that 4-1 or 5-0 day that has eluded us for the last couple of weeks. However, minimizing the damage is more important than capitalizing when you are hot. Therefore, our focus for the last week is to maintain the hard-earned bankroll we have built all season long while making one last sprint to the finish line in search of 2o units profit.
Here are my MLB top betting plays for Sunday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook):
YTD: 79-72-1 (+13.01 units)
Check out our daily MLB consensus game odds here >>
Indians-Tigers UNDER 8 runs (-110)
Earlier in the season, our bankroll got fat on the perpetual fading of Detroit Tigers starter Matthew Boyd. Boyd (2-6, 6.75) was arguably the worst pitcher in baseball through his first five starts. He started the year allowing 25 runs in his first 23.1 innings. However, he has pitched much better of late, allowing two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts. In fact, Boyd is coming off his best outing of the season where he allowed just two hits and no runs in 5.2 innings against the Royals.
Boyd is opposed by Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco (2-4, 3.27 ERA) who has pitched well this season despite having a poor win-loss record. Carrasco has received one run or less of support in three of his last four starts. Throw in the fact that the under is 6-1 in Detroit’s last seven day games against divisional opponents, and the tantalizingly low under looks like the right side.
New York Mets ML (-114)
The New York Mets have won three of their last four games and are suddenly 1.5 games out of the eighth-seed in the National League playoffs. The Mets know every game is crucial down the stretch, but their sense of urgency seems to have them playing their best baseball at the moment. Though the Braves first-place NL East lead has shrunk to 2.5 games, they are much more comfortable with a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs. The Mets are 1-6 in Rick Porcello’s last seven starts, which makes this line awfully fishy and suggests he and the Mets are due for some positive regression.
White Sox -1.5 runs (+133)
The Chicago White Sox cooled off the sizzling Reds with last night’s 5-0 victory. Prior to that, the Reds had won six straight games. However, a troubling trend concerning Cincinnati appears in this game. The Reds have struggled with avoiding losing streaks of late as they are 0-7 SU in their last seven games against AL Central teams following a home loss. Any time one of Cincinnati’s all-star pitchers (Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Luis Castillo) are not starting, it provides a great opportunity to bet against them. Today’s starter is Michael Lorenzen (2-1, 4.56 ERA) who is making just his second start of the season after making 15 appearances out of the bullpen. He should not be able to last longer than five innings in this game, which gives the White Sox an opportunity to attack a 23rd-ranked Reds bullpen who has pitched to a 4.78 ERA this year.
Cardinals-Pirates UNDER 3.5 Runs- First 5 innings (+110)
The St. Louis Cardinals have played six doubleheaders in the last three weeks, so their bullpen has been taxed of late. What once was a top-three bullpen is now ranked 12th with a 4.24 ERA. To take the relievers out of the equation, we instead focus on the first five innings line and are pleasantly surprised to find plus-odds on the under. St. Louis ace Jack Flaherty was roughed up in his last start, allowing nine runs in three innings to the Milwaukee Brewers. However, he is 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA with 47 strikeouts in eight career starts against the Pirates. The five wins against the Pirates are the most he has had against any opponent. Pirates starter Joe Musgrove (0-5, 5.74 ERA) has struggled this year but is coming off a season-high eight strikeout performance and have faith he can do his part for this under.
Mariners ML (+200)
The San Diego Padres have lost three of their last four games, and are starting to look like a team resigned to knowing they cannot catch the first-place Dodgers. The Padres are five games back of L.A. with seven games to play, so the fourth seed in the National League playoffs looks like a certainty. Thus, that may explain San Diego’s recent slide, including last night’s 4-1 loss to the Mariners last night. Despite a 23-29 overall record, the Mariners have a respectable 12-9 record at home this year. Rookie starter Justin Dunn is 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA and just seven hits allowed in 20 innings over his past four starts. We will take a flier at such long odds that San Diego’s lackluster play continues.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.