Top 5 MLB Betting Picks for Tuesday, August 25th
Sometimes, sports betting is as easy as following trends. Home teams and underdogs had been profitable throughout the weekend, so we wagered on all three home underdogs on Monday’s slate. A 2-1 day resulted in +1.4 units, and that’s certainly better than the 1-4 day prior. In total, underdogs went 5-4, and they continue their recent run of positive returns.
Here are my MLB betting plays for Tuesday (Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook):
YTD: 53-42-2 (+14.65 units)
Check out our daily MLB consensus game odds here >>
Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run: Yes (+335)
Juan Soto has owned Phillies starter Jake Arrieta so far in his young career. In nine career at-bats, he has four hits, and two of those were home runs. Another one of his hits was a double, meaning that he hits the ball very hard against him. He has just one strikeout to go with one walk, which suggests that he sees the ball well and that Arrieta doesn’t often get swings and misses on him. We’re nearing the midpoint of the season, and Soto is batting a ridiculous .400 with a 1.302 OPS. And then there is this…
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 runs (-106)
The Rays were “cooled off†by the Blue Jays, as they split their recent four-game series. We use the term “cooled off†because the Rays had won 11 of 12 games entering that series, with all those wins coming against AL East opponents. The Rays now take aim at another division rival whom they have owned at home of late.
The Rays are 20-8 in their last 28 meetings in Tampa against the Baltimore Orioles. Current Rays are hitting .407 in 59 career at-bats against Orioles starter Tommy Milone (1-3, 4.13 ERA). Those numbers include a home run in every 12 at-bats against him and a collective slugging percentage of .712. In total, Milone is 3-4 with a 6.18 ERA in nine appearances against the Rays.
Meanwhile, Rays starter Tyler Glasnow (0-1, 6.00 ERA) has a 2-0 record and 1.99 ERA in four career starts against the Orioles. He has held Orioles hitters to a .154 BA and .256 slugging percentage. Thus, this game has all the makings of a home rout for the Rays.
Gerrit Cole OVER total strikeouts (odds not yet posted)
While we await the odds on the Yankees-Braves series opener, one player prop I will be interested in playing no matter the total is the over on Yankees starter Gerrit Cole’s strikeouts. The Braves are the third-worst team in the majors with a 26.5% strikeout rate. In addition, Cole has struck out 25 Braves in 114 career plate appearances. Thus, if he threw six innings and faced roughly 25 batters in that span, his one strikeout ever 4.56 plate appearances would mean a total of 5.5 strikeouts.
Those numbers are conservative, as Cole has reached at least eight strikeouts in his last three starts. He is rested after a long layoff due to their previous series against the Mets being postponed, so look for Cole to reach back and take advantage of a lineup that is adept at swinging and missing. I would play this total up to 7.5 strikeouts.
Arizona Diamondbacks ML (-113)
The Diamondbacks extended their longest losing streak of the season to six games with a 3-2 loss in the series opener against the Colorado Rockies. Arizona’s offense has not scored more than two runs in that span, and they currently rank 26th in the majors with a .374 team slugging percentage. Now they are small favorites over one of Colorado’s best pitchers?
Do not let the series-opening win fool you about the Rockies. This is a team that came in losing ten of their last 11 games, and today’s starter, German Marquez (2-4, 4.38 ERA), has lost his previous three starts. His career numbers against Arizona leave something to be desired, as he is 3-5 with a 4.54 ERA in 15 appearances against them. Add in the fact that star outfielder Charlie Blackmon may miss a second-straight game with a quadriceps injury, and this looks more like an excellent opportunity for the Diamondbacks to end their losing streak.
Dodgers-Giants OVER 9 runs (-114)
Recent trends suggest the over between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants adds up pretty easily. The Dodgers have scored five or more runs in three of their last four games. San Francisco’s offense is even hotter, scoring five or more runs in six of their last seven games. Under backers will point to the fact that Giants starter Johnny Cueto took a no-hitter into the sixth inning in L.A. earlier in the month. However, this is his third start against the Dodgers on the young season, and that advantage of seeing a pitcher so often eventually turns to the hitters.
Also, each of those games started by Cueto ended with a total of nine runs regardless of how well he pitched, as the Dodgers attacked the Giants’ poor bullpen late. Dodgers starter Julio Urias also is making his third start against the Giants this year. Though his career numbers (1.48 ERA in 14 appearances) are stellar against the Giants, San Francisco’s offensive trends have been too good to ignore.
View more game odds and place bets at FanDuel Sportsbook >>
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.