Top 5 MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, July 29
With each day I wager on sports I am starting to become more and more a believer in karma. A day after Milwaukee erased a four-run deficit to win in extra innings, the Brewers blew a four-run lead en route to an 8-6 loss. That loss prevented what would have been a 3-0 day (4-0 if counting the Chicago-Cleveland under from Monday’s write-up) for us yesterday. However, we will never complain about a winning day and our third-consecutive profitable betting day.
Here are my top MLB betting plays for Wednesday (Odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook).
YTD: 10-5-1 (+4.12 units)
Check out our daily MLB consensus game odds here >>
Texas ML (-114)
The Texas Rangers are 1-3 to start the season and have scored just six runs in four games. And we like them to beat Madison Bumgarner and the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday? We sure do, especially since the early trends dictate sharp money has already been wagered on the Rangers. 70% of all bets but 54% of all money has been wagered on Arizona, meaning the biggest and most respected money has come in on the Rangers. Starter Lance Lynn is looking to follow up a dazzling Opening Day performance where he threw six shutout innings, allowing just two hits and recording nine strikeouts. This is an ultimate “fade the public†play, thus one is likely to get Texas at better odds by waiting until closer to first pitch to wager.
Washington-Toronto First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-112)
The Washington Nationals are once again off to a slow start. Their 19-31 start to last season was highlighted as they rebounded quickly and went on to win the World Series. With just 60 games to this season, the Nationals cannot afford to keep losing series after a 1-4 start. Good thing they are sending ace Max Scherzer to the mound to stop the bleeding.
After losing the first two games of the series to Toronto by a combined 9-2, Washington’s offense looks in a complete rut. On Wednesday, they oppose Blue Jays starter Nate Pearson who is making his first ever Major League start. Pearson is Toronto’s top-ranked prospect, and has a fastball that tops out at 100 mph. It should take one or two rotations through the lineup before the Nationals ever feel comfortable in the box against Pearson. In addition, we have faith in Scherzer to replicate his career success over Toronto, as he is 4-2 with a 2.24 ERA in nine career starts against them.
New York Mets: Race to 2 runs (-145)
We wanted to get some action on the Mets since ace Jacob deGrom is on the mound. However, it took awhile to find the right prop given the risk involved. New York’s moneyline was too steep, as was the first five innings line. I was tempted to suggest the under on the first five innings, but Boston’s pitching has been so bad that the Mets might go over that total by themselves.
Thus, we are getting a little inventive with the “race to 2 runs†prop. This is simply a wager on which team will score two runs first. I realize this is somewhat risky since the Red Sox bat first as the visiting team. However, Jacob deGrom has been so good that this is a bet he limits the Red Sox to less than two runs for as long as he is in the game.
Tampa Bay-Atlanta UNDER 8.5 (-105)
Those that bet the over in this matchup are likely still harping on the fact that these offenses recently took turns scoring 14 runs on consecutive days. However, the pitching matchup between Charlie Morton and Mike Soroka is good enough to stymie the best offenses in the league. Both pitchers finished in the top-six of their respective league’s Cy Young voting last year. Soroka was brilliant on Opening Day throwing six shutout innings while Morton started strong before one big inning got the best of him.
Instead of simply betting on the first five innings under, we have faith in two of the best bullpens in baseball to shut down the opposition in the late innings. The under is 4-1 in the last five Braves games following a loss, and is 16-7 in their last 23 home games.
Seattle ML (+178)
Enough with the chalk. Let’s end the day with a one-unit play on an underdog we think provides much value in the Seattle Mariners. The Los Angeles Angels got a boost to their lineup with the debut of prized free agent Anthony Rendon making his debut. Rendon went 1-3 with a home run and two RBI in his first game of the season. The Angels trounced the Mariners 10-2, and thus the public will likely pounce on the Angels once more.
The unfamiliarity of Mariners starter Justin Dunn will hopefully pay dividends in shutting down the Angels lineup. Dunn did not record a decision but had a respectable 2.70 ERA in four starts last season. Furthermore, Angels starter Andrew Heaney was far from dominant on Opening Day as he labored through 4 2/3 innings against Oakland. For a quirky trend to support our pick, Seattle is 5-2 in their last seven games in the second game of a series.
View more game odds and place bets at FanDuel Sportsbook >>
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.