Top 5 MLB Betting Plays for Saturday, September 12th
Just when we thought we might be in the clear down the homestretch as far as COVID-19 was concerned, two Padres-Giants games were postponed as someone in the Giants organization tested positive. We had gone nine days since our last COVID-19 postponement. With the playoffs rapidly approaching it is becoming more and more important for the players’ union to accept MLB’s proposal for a bubble format during the playoffs.
Nevertheless, we forge through the weekend and into the last two weeks of the regular season. Magic numbers will dwindle and playoff positioning will seemingly change every day.
Here are my MLB top betting plays for Saturday. (Odds courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook):
YTD: 70-63-2 (+11.90 units)
Check out our daily MLB consensus game odds here >>
New York Yankees to Lead After Three Innings (+112)
The Baltimore Orioles have had their fair of struggles lately against the Yankees. It was been well-documented that they have lost 21 of their last 24 games against New York, including 19 straight at one point. However, a more unknown trend is that they have trailed after three innings in each of their last eight games at Yankee Stadium.
There will be many who will lay the big -195 moneyline odds with the Yankees, or bet them -1.5 runs on the runline. However, I am not convinced that yesterday’s sweep of a doubleheader cured them of all their issues. The Yankees were fortunate to have their two best pitchers in Gerrit Cole and Masahiro Tanaka lined up for both games, and that today’s starter Jordan Montgomery is a significant downgrade from them. The Yankees are certainly capable of winning, but I would prefer to take their beleaguered bullpen out of the equation and get plus-odds that they will jump on the Orioles once again.
Braves-Nationals UNDER 9 runs (-120)
I always try and sneak in at least one fishy line to this column, and this total is today’s version of that. The over is 7-1 in the last eight games between these teams. They have combined for at least 13 runs in each of their last five games, which makes a total of nine runs look awfully suspicious.
One reason to like the under is the fact that Braves slugger Ronald Acuna Jr. may be absent from today’s lineup as he left yesterday’s game after fouling a ball off his foot. In addition, Washington starter Patrick Corbin is 9-3 with a 2.57 ERA in his home starts since joining the team. He is opposed by Atlanta’s Ian Anderson (2-0, 2.40 ERA) who is making his fourth major league start. Anderson has allowed just one home run in 15 innings and is averaging better than one strikeout per inning.
Hold your nose all you want at this pick, but the fact that oddsmakers did not make this a double-digit total despite the offensive fireworks between these teams lately tells me something.
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 runs (+106)
There is a saying in baseball that it is a sport where we often see something new happen every game. In yesterday’s Rays-Red Sox game we saw something that has not happened in the modern era.
The Rays had been struggling mightily as a team at the plate, having been held to three runs or fewer in five of their prior six games. Their all-lefty lineup seemed to have sparked something as Tampa Bay cruised to an 11-1 victory last night. Sometimes in baseball, all it takes is one good game of swinging the bats to reignite a dormant offense. Now Rays hitters do not have to press as much at the plate and can get back to what earned them a 4.5 game lead in the division.
In addition, the Rays will start Tyler Glasnow (2-1, 4.35 ERA) whose stuff has been electric all season. He has 66 strikeouts in 39.1 innings, which equates to a whopping 15.1 K’s per game. The current Rays are hitting .356 and slugging .576 combined in their careers off Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi, so another big Rays win should be on tap.
Seattle Mariners UNDER 3.5 Team Total Runs (-122)
This bet is all about Arizona Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen. Gallen (1-1, 2.29 ERA) just had his MLB-record of 23 straight starts allowing three runs or less to begin a career end in his last start against the Giants. However, that is no reason to lose confidence in the youngster now. He is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in four home starts this year, and is 1-1 with a 1.67 ERA in four career starts against AL opponents. The Diamondbacks are in the midst of their first winning streak since August 17-18, and Gallen should do his part in giving them a great chance to make it three straight wins.
Los Angeles Angels OVER 5.5 runs (-125)
The Los Angeles Angels have been held to four runs or fewer in three of their last four games. However, they had scored at least six runs in four consecutive games prior to that. Thus, an offensive bounce-back is coming and it has a great chance to happen against Rockies starter Kyle Freeland. Freeland (2-1, 3.60) is coming off a six shutout inning performance at the San Diego Padres. However, his home starts have been much worse as he has a 4.50 ERA in five home starts compared to a 2.63 ERA in four road starts.
The over is 12-1 in the Angels last 13 games as underdogs, and they have won the first inning in each of their last three games. Look for the right-handed dominant lineup of the Angels to jump on Freeland early and once again give the lefty fits in his home park.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.