Top 7 NFL Player Props & Bets: Week 16 Picks (2025)
For this week's plays, we're betting against a heavy-duty running back, playing the hot hand with a running back who's trying to earn an incentive bonus, and fading a couple of pass catchers with spotty usage outlooks.
Before we get into the Week 16 picks, a quick recap of Week 15:
Wins: TreVeyon Henderson over 45.5 rushing yards, Woody Marks under 74.5 rushing yards, Kimani Vidal over 26.5 rushing yards, Rico Dowdle under 61.5 rushing yards
Losses: Brady Cook under 160.5 passing yards, Jordan Love under 228.5 passing yards, Michael Wilson over 54.5 receiving yards
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Best Week 16 NFL Player Props & Bets
Last week: 4-3 | Season record: 62-43 | All odds are from Hard Rock Bet as of Thursday night.
Audric Estime Over 29.5 Rushing Yards
With Devin Neal out for the season with a hamstring injury and Alvin Kamara unlikely to return from knee and ankle injuries this week, the Saints' backfield is likely to be divided between Audric Estime and Evan Hull.
After Neal was injured last week, Estime played 25 snaps to Hull's 22. Estime had three carries for 11 yards, Hull four carries for 12 yards. Estime was a far more accomplished runner in college than Hull was, rushing for 1,341 yards and 18 touchdowns in his final collegiate season at Notre Dame.
If Estime gets just six or seven carries, he'll have a solid chance to beat this number against a Jets defense that has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to RBs. But there's a reasonable chance Estime gets 10 or more carries, and if that happens, Estime should clear this number with ease.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. Over 45.5 Rushing Yards
After splitting work pretty evenly with Devin Singletary for several weeks, Tyrone Tracy Jr. took charge of the Giants' backfield in Week 15. Tracy played 76.5% of the Giants' offensive snaps last week against the Commanders and had 15 carries for 70 yards and a touchdown.
Now, Tracy will face a Vikings defense that's much better against the pass than it is against the run. Minnesota's defense is a run funnel. The Vikings have faced a league-high 372 rushing attempts by RBs, which works out to 26.6 carries a game.
Running the ball will help the Giants protect young franchise QB Jaxson Dart against the blitz-happy Vikings. Expect Tracy to get plenty of work on Sunday, making the over on his rushing yardage a strong percentage play.
Quinshon Judkins Under 63.5 Rushing Yards
Since Week 6, Quinshon Judkins has averaged 50.9 rushing yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry. He's averaged under 2.0 yards per carry in each of his last two games, and those two games were against the Titans and Bears - not very good run defenses.
The Browns face the Bills, whose run defense is suspect. Still, the Browns' offensive line is so beaten up that it might not be able to capitalize on the favorable matchup. Center Ethan Pocic is out for the season, tackle Jack Conklin has a concussion, and guards Wyatt Teller and Zak Zinter are questionable.
Take the under on what looks like an extremely high bar for Judkins to clear given the way things have been trending.
Tony Pollard Over 51.5 Rushing Yards
After struggling for most of the season, Tony Pollard has caught fire.
Pollard ran for 168 yards against the Browns in Week 14, then ran for 104 yards against the 49ers in Week 15. He's averaged 6.6 yards per carry over his last three games.
Pollard will earn a $250,000 bonus if he rushes for 1,100 yards this season. He's 253 yards away with three games to play.
The Titans face the Chiefs this week. The Kansas City run defense is usually tough, but it hasn't played up to its usual standards this year, and the Chiefs have little incentive now that they're out of the playoff hunt.
I like Pollard's chance to beat this number.
Ryan Flournoy Under 31.5 Receiving Yards
Flournoy has beaten this number in three consecutive games, but he barely beat it in two of them, with 34 yards in Week 13 and 40 yards in Week 15. Flournoy went berserk in Week 14 with 115 yards, but he did most of his damage after CeeDee Lamb left that game with a concussion.
There have only been four games this year in which Flournoy has drawn more than three targets. With Lamb and George Pickens both healthy, it seems unlikely that Flournoy will see many targets this week when the Cowboys face the Chargers.
This is a tough matchup for the Dallas passing game. The Chargers have the lowest opponent passer rating in the league and have allowed the fifth-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers.
The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet loves the under on Flournoy’s receiving yardage, giving it a five-star bet rating and a 66% chance of hitting.
Jeremy Ruckert Under 20.5 Receiving Yards
Ruckert has cleared this number in just four of his 14 games this season, and he hasn't had more than 28 receiving yards in any game. He's had two or fewer receptions in 12 of his 14 games, and Ruckert is averaging 8.2 yards per catch.
A neck injury to starting TE Mason Taylor enhances the target outlook for Ruckert to some degree, but the targets will be coming from rookie QB Brady Cook, who threw for just 176 yards last week in his first NFL start and has averaged 5.4 yards per pass attempt over the last two weeks.
Olamide Zaccheaus Over 29.5 Receiving Yards
With Rome Odunze (foot) and Luther Burden III (ankle) both ruled out for this week's game against the Packers, Olamide Zaccheaus is going to get ample playing time as Chicago's de facto No. 2 receiver behind DJ Moore.
Zaccheaus has taken a back seat to Burden in recent weeks. However, in the first half of the regular season, when Burden was playing relatively few snaps, Zaccheaus averaged 3.9 catches and 30.4 receiving yards over his first eight games.
With Burden on the shelf, I expect Zaccheaus to be busy this Sunday. Bet him to clear this low bar.