Top College Basketball Picks for Friday, November 19 (2021)
Last night, we had more of the same. We went 2-1 and made some profit yet again. In college basketball, it’s impossible to analyze every game. There are too many teams and so many games. If you’re looking to profit, I would recommend finding your niche within the sport you’re looking to bet.
If you try to bet overs, unders, + money bets, – money bets, and so forth, it’s going to be a bit harder to be profitable. However, if you find your niche, know what you’re looking for and continue to work at that specific market, you’re going to find more success.
For my work, you’ll see that I’m currently, for the most part, looking at small underdogs that I believe could win outright. This, unless I see a home team that should be favorited by way more. Anyway, let’s get right to it.
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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Liberty Flames vs. Iona Gaels: Iona +4.5 (-110)
(5:00 PM ET tip)
Liberty has only played one game against a D-1 opponent and it was a loss to LSU, 74-58. We really don’t know how good Liberty is going to be this year and while they’re supposed to be really good, Iona already has a few games under their belt and has actually looked good.
Iona is 3-0 on the year and has been extremely aggressive getting to the line. The Gaels have a 54.5 free throw attempts to field goal attempt ratio and have shot 56.8 percent inside the arc. Meanwhile, Liberty, against LSU, turned the ball over nearly 30 percent of the time and shot just 45.8 percent inside.
The Flames will shoot plenty of three-point shots, but so far, Iona has kept their opponents in check, holding opponents to 26.8 percent from downtown. Iona is at +4.5, on a neutral court in Orlando, Florida. I’ll take it.
Western Carolina vs UMBC: Western Carolina +4.5 (-110)
(7:30 PM ET tip)
Western Carolina was picked last in the Southern Conference this season. I get it. This team has a new coach, just two key returners, and has a lot to prove. However, from three-point land, they’ve already proved so much. They’re going to be one of the top teams in the nation when it comes to three-point shooting attempts. I didn’t say makes! I said attempts. But either way, Western Carolina has nailed over 36 percent of threes so far this season and has looked good from long range.
With a win over Bowling Green, Western Carolina proved that they can defend and have success against solid D-1 opponents. They’re going to take on a UMBC team that lost their lone D-1 game against UMass. In that game against UMass, UMBC went up 15-2 to start the game, only to fall 77-60. That’s quite the swing. The offense really struggled in that one. After that game for UMBC, they played a non-D-1 opponent and still shot poorly from the field. UMBC was just able to get offensive rebounds and use their big bodies to get ahead quickly in comparison.
In this game, at a neutral court in Virginia, I like Western Carolina to win this game knowing UMBC’s offense just can’t keep up right now. Western Carolina can go up 15 and lose a lead in seconds where they’re up 15. But right now UMBC just can’t hang offensively. They’ve lost two key players and their head coach to Utah State and have two solid transfers already out for the year with injuries. It’s just going to be a down year for UMBC.
Southern Illinois vs Colorado: Colorado -6.5 (-110)
(8:00 PM ET tip)
Colorado has been impressive enough this season. At 3-0, they’re getting the job done with wins over Montana State, New Mexico, and Maine. Montana State and New Mexico weren’t easy wins but Colorado found a way at home. Now they’ll take on a Southern Illinois team that is already 1-1 on the year with a loss to Little Rock. They beat Austin Peay after that loss, but Austin Peay is a bottom 50 team in college basketball this season.
Southern Illinois has turned the ball over 25.4 percent of the time and while they’ve been terrific inside, scoring 68.5 percent of baskets, that won’t last against a Pac-12 team like Colorado.
The Buffaloes, on the other hand, are shooting 46 percent from long range and have brought down 42.1 percent offensive rebounds while getting to the line at a ridiculous rate.
Great three-point shooting, winning the turnover battle, winning the rebounding battle, and taking high-quality shots should help Colorado get through Southern Illinois by double digits at Paradise Jam.
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Jason Radowitz is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him @Jason_Radowitz.