Top College Basketball Picks for Monday, November 29 (2021)
Last Friday, we got back on track by winning two of the three suggested bets. It would be nice to start off Monday like we finished Friday.
Tonight, there’s a much smaller slate than usual in college basketball, but there are still plenty of games to choose from. For whatever reason, I’ve landed on a couple ACC/Big Ten Challenge games for my plays today. Here are my picks for November 29.
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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Iowa vs. Virginia: Iowa -125 Moneyline
(2:30 PM ET tip)
Iowa hasn’t played a power-five team yet this season, but against mid-major opponents, the Hawkeyes have been winning games by an average of more than 30 points per game. This season, there have already been games where Iowa has scored 108 and 109 points against actual division I opponents.
The offense has one of the highest-rated adjusted offensive efficiencies in the nation, with a high effective field goal percentage and low turnover rate. Against Virginia, the offense might not be nearly as good but should be good enough while shooting 38.5 percent from long range, 57.7 percent from inside, and 83.2 percent from the foul line.
Meanwhile, Virginia is shooting an effective field goal percentage of 47.4 percent and has turned the ball over nearly 19 percent of the time. The Cavaliers also haven’t been terrific on the glass, meaning if Iowa can get long rebounds to go their way, they’ll still be able to get fastbreak points against Virginia.
Virginia has only scored 70 points or more in one game this season. Iowa has scored 85 or more points in every game this season. The Cavaliers just won’t be able to keep up.
Notre Dame vs. Illinois: Illinois -6.5 (-110)
(9:00 PM ET tip)
I’m really loving the Big Ten today. Illinois should be way heavier favorites, at home, against Notre Dame here. I would’ve expected the Fighting Illini to be double-digit favorites here.
Illinois hasn’t looked nearly as good with Kofi Cockburn back in the lineup. Maybe it’ll take some time, but I think that time is now. The Fighting Illini failed to put UT Rio Grande Valley out early on Friday and only defeated Kansas State by eight points on Tuesday. That was after losing to Marquette and Cincinnati in back-to-back games.
Still, Illinois will be one of the best teams in the nation, and when everything comes together, things will work out. Currently, the Fighting Illini are turning the ball over 24.2 percent of the time with 40.8 percent offensive rebounds. The Fighting Illini just needs to shoot more and limit the turnovers.
Notre Dame has been one of the worst teams at defending the three all year, allowing the opposition to knock down 45.6 percent from threes this season. Expect Illinois to exploit that, and despite Notre Dame being excellent on the glass defensively, Illinois will still grab plenty of second-chance opportunities as well.
Wyoming vs. Cal State Fullerton: Wyoming -2.5 (-110)
(10:00 PM ET tip)
Wyoming is currently 5-0 this season and has knocked off Washington and Grand Canyon on the road to start the season. Now they’ll take on Cal State Fullerton on the road, and that shouldn’t phase the Cowboys either.
The Cowboys are shooting 61.5 percent from inside the arc and have an effective field goal percentage of 57.6 percent. Wyoming isn’t exceptional on the glass, but it’s also because they’re able to score so easily inside. Cal State Fullerton has also allowed opponents to shoot 37.1 percent from long range on the season, and Wyoming is more than capable of draining some shots from behind the arc when open.
Meanwhile, on the other hand, Wyoming is holding opponents to just 22.4 percent from deep and 36.6 percent from inside the arc. All of that is great. However, Wyoming has struggled with defensive rebounds. Cal State Fullerton will get some second-chance opportunities but don’t really have the scoring or consistency to keep up with Wyoming.
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Jason Radowitz is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him @Jason_Radowitz.