Top College Basketball Picks for Thursday, December 9 (2021)
Yesterday was bad! None of our plays came close to how I expected things to play out. That’s why sports betting is a long grind throughout each individual season. You can’t get down on yourself in one day and change up the process. We’re keeping the same process today. Let’s get right to it.
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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Detroit Mercy vs Kent State: Over 137.5 (-115)
(7:00 PM ET tip)
This number is extremely low for two teams that love to shoot the three. Not only do both teams love shooting the three, but also both teams struggle to defend very well.
Detroit is shooting 35.1 percent from long range this season with 46.4 percent inside. The Titans aren’t exactly great inside, but Kent State has been so poor on the defensive glass, I’d like to think Detroit can win some offensive rebounds and get some second chances in this game.
Kent State has allowed 35.4 percent offensive rebounds this season and has really struggled to defend inside. While the Golden Flashes have held teams to 28.7 percent from downtown, they can’t rebound well off those misses.
Detroit, on the other hand, has allowed teams to shoot 35.7 percent from long range and 56.2 percent from inside. The Golden Flashes are scoring 34.8 points from long range this season and are shooting 84.9 percent from the foul line, which is the best percentage in the nation.
So while neither of these two offenses looks insane, both defenses look horrible. Kent State should get to the line at a high rate and Detroit should be able to earn more second chances. I like the over here.
Colgate vs Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh +3 (-110)
(8:00 PM ET tip)
The Pittsburgh Panthers will finish the season as one of the worst ACC teams. But still, I see some improvement from this club. Pittsburgh just took two losses by one point to Minnesota and Virginia and are trending in an upward direction, despite being just 2-4 on the season. If those losses turned into wins against those two power-five teams, Pittsburgh would be 4-4 and we’d be talking about how they’ve improved drastically.
The Colgate offense is shooting a ton of threes and while they’re hitting 39.3 percent of them, the Raiders have been just average on the glass this season. On misses, Pittsburgh should be able to clean the glass and head the other way.
The Panthers will also keep this game as a low possession game. They’ve been hard to score against early and have chosen to use a lot of time on the shot clock most possessions. Fewer possessions, more rebounds, and getting to the line at a high rate should help Pittsburgh get the job done, at home.
Grand Canyon vs Arizona State: Over 130 (-120)
(9:30 PM ET tip)
There’s reason to believe Grand Canyon can win this game. While the defense has been spectacular this season, the offensive has ultimately been the game-changer for the Antelopes. Grand Canyon has won every game but one this season but hasn’t faced much of a test this year.
Arizona State will be that test that Grand Canyon has been missing. So, while the Antelopes have been playing good defense, things should get a bit more tricky against Arizona State.
The Antelopes are averaging 40.7 percent offensive rebounds per game and have hit 36.5 percent from long range on the year. Grand Canyon is also hitting 50 percent of shots inside and limiting blocks and steals on possessions.
Meanwhile, Arizona State has started off the season pretty poorly, which is why I believe this total is a bit too low. The Sun Devils are shooting just 30.7 percent from long range and 46.6 percent from inside. They’re also not getting to the line as much and have struggled when they do get there.
But at home, I like Arizona State to turn things around offensively. There’s too much talent on this roster for Arizona State’s offense to stay quiet.
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Jason Radowitz is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him @Jason_Radowitz.