Top College Basketball Picks for Tuesday, November 23 (2021)
I’m not one to parlay much, but if you submitted a parlay with all three picks from yesterday’s article, you’re feeling pretty good today. All three plays hit with a couple of underdogs winning outright. Those days where you sweep are hard to come by, even for professional sports bettors. It’s not an easy feat.
Still, there’s no time to celebrate. It’s time to give out my top three plays for Tuesday, November 23.
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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Milwaukee vs. Bowling Green: Bowling Green +2 (-110)
(2:30 PM ET tip)
Let’s start our plays with a 2:30 game between Bowling Green and Milwaukee in the Fort Myers Tip-Off. Bowling Green has struggled to start the season with a 1-3 record. This was not expected and still way earlier in the season to panic. The Falcons lost to Western Carolina in overtime, got crushed by Ohio State, and lost an offensive battle against Norfolk State, another team that made the NCAA Tournament last year.
Bowling Green can really turn things around in the next couple of games, but it starts with this one. They’re shooting a 42.8 percent effective field goal percentage and just 25.3 percent from deep on the season. Still, this is a confident bunch with plenty of big-time shooters.
With Milwaukee allowing 35.6 percent from long range this season, there’s reason to believe that Bowling Green will get some open looks and finally start to see them go down.
On the other hand, Milwaukee hasn’t looked great offensively either. The Panthers won against North Dakota but lost to Eastern Kentucky and were blown out by Florida. There’s nothing special out of Milwaukee either. They’re shooting a 43.5 percent effective field goal percentage and have struggled on the glass more so than Bowling Green has. The Panthers have also shot just 36 percent from long range and have been worse inside, shooting just 45.2 percent.
Give me Bowling Green in a defense-less game.
George Mason vs Nevada: George Mason +4.5 (-110)
(7:00 PM ET tip)
The George Mason Patriots started the season 4-0 but have since lost two straight games by one possession. Either way, George Mason would’ve covered every single game with this +4.5 number. Now they’ll try to get back on track on a neutral court in South Dakota in the Crossover Classic against Nevada.
Nevada allows a 57.9 percent effective field goal percentage while George Mason has shot a 57.1 percent effective field goal percentage. 43.7 percent of George Mason’s points are coming from long range, and through six games, the Patriots have shot 40.9 percent from long range. Meanwhile, Nevada has allowed its opponents to hit 39.8 percent of threes. The Wolf Pack have also allowed teams to shoot 56.5 percent inside and have really struggled to rebound at a high pace in this one.
Therefore, I like George Mason to find success against Nevada as the underdog. The Patriots could get the outright win, but we’ll play it safe here.
Oregon vs. St. Mary’s: Oregon (-120)
(8:00 PM ET tip)
Oregon had an embarrassing loss to BYU last Tuesday, losing 81-49 in a semi-home game. That was after crushing a really solid SMU team, 86-63. The Ducks have a top 20 offense in adjusted efficiency via KenPom and have limited turnovers while getting a solid amount of offensive rebounds.
It might be a bit harder to grab offensive rebounds against St. Mary’s, but it won’t be hard to get quality looks. Oregon is still shooting 34.3 percent from long range and has been getting to the line at an above-average pace to start the season. Meanwhile, the defense for the Ducks has not been good. They’ve allowed a 55.2 percent effective field goal percentage and have been crushed inside, allowing teams to shoot 57.9 percent inside the arc.
However, St. Mary’s is scoring 35.9 percent of their points from the perimeter, and if St. Mary’s shoots a heavy dosage of three’s, the Gaels are going to go one-and-done in those scenarios against the Ducks. Give me Oregon to get a bounce-back win against St. Mary’s.
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Jason Radowitz is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him @Jason_Radowitz.