Top College Basketball Picks Friday, December 25th (2020)
The day before the short break for Christmas Eve proved to be a difficult one to handicap. However, we were bailed out with a .500 day as we relied on a prior experience for inside knowledge on one of the day’s more under-the-radar games. Whereas most bettors were blindly betting the Notre Dame-Bellarmine game as they could not locate Bellarmine on a map, we relied on having seen these same two teams play a scrimmage a year ago that gave us an inside edge. Though most of the picks in our column reflect the most high-profile games on the day’s slate, this serves as a reminder that often times there is a big edge to be had over oddsmakers with games involving lesser-known teams.
While the Christmas Day college basketball slate is not as extensive as the NBA’s, there are still four solid Big Ten games worth taking a look at. Here are two best bets of the four. Merry Christmas everyone!
YTD: 36-22-1
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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Maryland at Purdue: Maryland +5.5
(2:30 PM ET tip)
The Maryland Terrapins had lost two consecutive games by an average of 15 points per game before a much needed “get right†game against La Salle. They head to West Lafayette to take on a Purdue team that opened Big Ten play with a splash by beating Ohio State, but were ultimately over-matched by their last opponent in the Iowa Hawkeyes. The two teams have a common opponent in Clemson, whom each lost to by double figures.
While Purdue is tough at home, they still feel a bit overvalued as a result of that win over the Buckeyes. Ohio State was missing their second leader scorer and rebounder E.J. Liddell in that game, thus the Boilermakers were able to exert their physicality in his absence. In addition, it is concerning that Purdue could only manage 55 points against an Iowa defense that had allowed an average of 72.9 PPG before that contest.
This game will be an interesting contrast of styles as the smaller Terrapins who do not have a significant contributor taller than 6’9″ must contend with Purdue’s massive front line of 6’10†Trevion Williams and 7’4″ Zach Edey. In situations like these, I will always take the quicker guards over the big men, as not enough college basketball teams know how to utilize their size advantage. Though Maryland is 0-3-1 ATS in their last four road games, we believe they are due for a cover here.
Iowa at Minnesota: Minnesota +7
(8:00 PM ET tip)
The Minnesota Golden Gophers rebounded nicely from a humbling 27-point loss to Illinois with an impressive under-the-radar win over Saint Louis. The Golden Gophers are 7-0 SU at home, and seven points is too much to give in what should be a hotly contested conference battle.
I am not buying that Iowa suddenly found a defense after limiting Purdue to 55 points. The Hawkeyes still rank 168th in the country in defending the three-point line. In addition, they are an awful defensive rebounding team as they allow opponents to board 35% of their own misses. Luka Garza gets all the buzz for conference and national player of the year, but Minnesota’s Marcus Carr deserves every bit the same attention. He has averaged 23.9 PPG and 6.0 APG, and Iowa does not have anyone on the perimeter that can keep him in front of them.
Richard Pitino’s bunch likes to play just as fast as Iowa with an adjusted tempo that ranks 16th, so they will be prepared to match points with the Hawkeyes in what should be a much closer game than the oddsmakers predict. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams, and the home team should cover once again.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.