Top College Basketball Picks Friday, January 15th (2021)
Though four ranked teams were supposed to be in action today, postponements due to COVID-19 have left us just one top 25 team on today’s slate. The ninth-ranked Wisconsin Badgers head to Piscataway to take on a Rutgers team that has been nearly unbeatable at home over the last two seasons. With ten other games tipping off at 5:00 PM ET or earlier, bettors will have plenty of opportunities to build their bankroll before nightfall.
Here are two picks for Friday.
YTD: 57-48-1
All odds via BettingPros consensus
Compare odds from all major sportsbooks for College Basketball >>
Texas State at Little Rock (-4.5): 7:30 PM ET
In Darrell Walker’s first season as Little Rock head coach in 2018-19, the Trojans went 10-21 overall and 5-13 in conference play. Last year, they improved drastically to 21-10 overall and 15-5 in conference and won the Sun Belt by two games. To say that Walker can coach is an understatement.
Little Rock is once again regarded as the team to beat in the Sun Belt. In conference play, they rank second in both adjusted offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage. Compared to Texas St., the Trojans defend the three-point line better and keep their opponents off the offensive glass at a higher rate. There is also a big disparity in free-throw percentage, as Texas St shoots just 67.7% as a team from the line while Little Rock is hitting 73.6% of their free throws. One concerning statistic is that Texas State’s defense does a great job at forcing turnovers, as they rank 15th nationally at forcing turnovers on 24.3% of their opponents’ possessions. However, junior guard Markquis Nowell Jr. is a steady lead guard for the Trojans. The player of the year candidate in the conference should facilitate the offense well despite the amped-up pressure.
Though Texas State is one of the conference’s best defensive teams, they are still a work in progress under first-year head coach Terrence Johnson. Between the coaching mismatch and Little Rock’s ability to be more explosive on offense, I trust them more at home in the first of back-to-back games against the Bobcats this weekend.
Wisconsin (-2) at Rutgers: 9:00 PM ET
Rutgers is in desperate need of a win after losing four of their last five conference games. They take on a Wisconsin team that was down 40 points to Michigan before ultimately losing by 23.
Though they are normally thought of as a sound defensive team, the Badgers have not been sound on that end in conference play. Wisconsin allows opponents to make 37.4% of their three-point attempts, which is second-worst in conference play. Also, they rank in the bottom half of the conference in turnovers forced, which means opponents are getting a lot of clean looks on possessions that are not resulting in empty trips.
Rutgers has struggled to a 3-4 start in conference play this season, but it has not been due to a lack of offense. The Scarlet Knights are hitting 39.2% of their three-point attempts in conference play, which is the second-highest percentage in the Big Ten. Considering Wisconsin’s inability to defend the three-point line at a high clip, that will pose problems for their chances of slowing Rutgers down. On the defensive end, Rutgers is having difficulty rebounding the ball and is allowing opponents to board 31.4% of their misses. Thus, Wisconsin will have many trips with multiple chances to score.
In a game projected to be this tight, it brings the possibility of fouling more often in late-game situations. These two teams combined for an average of 143.5 PPG in two meetings last year, so another higher-scoring game is likely to be in the cards. Look for both of these offenses to do their part in the scoring in a game that feels like an early-season must-win for both.
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.