Top College Basketball Picks Monday, December 21st (2020)
Though Sundays in December are dominated by NFL action, college basketball did not disappoint. In the Big East, three of the four conference games were decided by three points or less, with two going to overtime. Two other top 25 teams in Texas and Rutgers won one possession games, and we had a top five upset when Northwestern knocked off Michigan State. That last part was especially satisfying since we predicted in yesterday’s column that Northwestern would give the Spartans all they could handle.
With minimal appealing matchups, here are two bets for Monday.
YTD: 31-18-1
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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Gardner-Webb at Florida State: UNDER 143
(7:00 PM ET tip)
After a stunning 12-point loss to UCF on Saturday, the Florida State Seminoles will look to get the bad taste out of their mouths in a home tilt against Gardner-Webb. Leonard Hamilton’s team will certainly be more focused after a humbling loss, and a much more spirited effort can be expected on the defensive end after they allowed 86 points to the Knights. The under is 5-0 in Florida State’s last five games following a double-digit loss at home.
Both Gardner-Webb and Florida State are playing their fourth games in nine days, so their legs may be a bit weary. Gardner-Webb will not be intimidated in this game, as they have already faced another ACC team in Pittsburgh this year, plus another top 80 KenPom team in Western Kentucky. The under is 4-1 in the Runnin’ Bulldogs last five road games and is 5-2 in their last seven games overall. Look for another low-scoring battle in both teams’ last games before a long holiday break.
Northwestern St. at Gonzaga: Northwestern St. +38.5
(9:00 PM ET tip)
I promise we are not making this pick just because we are still gloating about Northwestern from yesterday. There is no doubt at this point who the best team in the country is. Not even a two-week layoff could keep Gonzaga from firing on all cylinders, as they dismantled their third top-11 team of the season on Saturday. The Bulldogs shot 51.4% from the floor against Iowa, and have this tune-up against Northwestern St. before they play another marquee matchup on the weekend against Virginia. Forgive Mark Few’s guys if they do not exactly get up for this game. A game against KenPom’s 305th ranked team sandwiched in between two top 17 matchups is the definition of a trap game, and that is enough to bite on the Demons.
Northwestern St. enters this game 1-7, and rank in the 200s or 300s in nearly every KenPom category. It matters not, as Gonzaga will use this game as an opportunity to get their bench players some game reps while working out certain kinks in a tune-up for Saturday’s big game. If you are inclined to tail this pick, you may be better off waiting until early evening as this line is not likely to move in the Demons’ favor.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.