Top College Basketball Picks Monday, February 1st (2021)
As the calendar turns to February, college basketball enters its final stretch. Teams will continue to add to their tournament resumes, and fans start to feel a sense of excitement since two weeks of conference tournament games are right around the corner. However, even though we are so close to those conference tournaments, there are starting to be grumblings that many tournaments will look different during these COVID-19 times.
Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo has openly questioned if many of the top teams like Gonzaga and Baylor, who seem like locks for No. 1 seeds, would opt out of their conference tournaments to avoid the risk of being subjected to the coronavirus so close to the NCAA Tournament. It is certainly something worth monitoring, but the fact that these tournaments seem destined to be played is a reason for excitement nonetheless.
Here are two picks for Monday.
YTD: 80-68-1
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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Duke (-8) at Miami: 7:00 PM ET
A week ago, Duke’s NCAA Tournament chances seemed slim at best as their record stood at 5-5 after a three-game losing streak. However, back-to-back home wins over Georgia Tech and Clemson have sparked a conversation of if the Blue Devils can play their way safely back into the 68-team tournament field. Duke has another opportunity to continue their momentum against a Miami team that is 14th out of 15 teams in the ACC after losing five of their last six games. There are not likely to be many Hurricanes backers in this one, but we will happily be on the contrarian side.
Duke is just 1-3 on the road this year, while most of Miami’s struggles lately have come on the road. The Blue Devils are just 3-3 SU in their last six trips to Miami, with all three of those losses coming as a ranked team (and once as the No. 1 team in the country). This Duke team is not nearly as talented as those Duke teams of the past decade, as their reliance on young players makes it difficult to sustain any momentum in the middle of the pandemic. The Blue Devils start three freshmen and two sophomores, and they have played as young as you would expect, with three of their starters averaging more turnovers than assists.
There is no doubting that Duke is the more talented team and should come out of Coral Gables with a win. However, as down as Duke is in the early part of the season, their name alone puts a target on their back. Thus, Miami will get up for this nationally televised game, and they would love nothing more than to end their losing streak by knocking off one of the sport’s Blue Bloods. Also, Duke may be in a bit of a look-ahead spot with a matchup against North Carolina looming in their next game.
East Tennessee State at Wofford (-3): 7:00 PM ET
Though tonight’s slate is not as action-packed as it will be on the other weekdays, one should not overlook this under-the-radar game between the two teams currently atop the Southern Conference standings.
East Tennessee State was projected to finish third in the preseason poll even though they were the defending regular-season and conference tournament champions who won 30 games last year. That is a historical mark as they were just the fourth team in the conference’s history to reach the 30-win mark. However, expectations were down, considering the Buccaneers lost all five starters and their head coach from last year’s team.
Instead, the Buccaneers picked up right where they left off last year thanks to a pair of transfers in Ledarrius and Ty Brewer. The brothers are averaging a combined 26.0 PPG this year and are complemented by two other Buccaneers averaging double figures. ETSU ranks in the top two in the conference in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. They are the conference’s best offensive rebounding team and second-best three-point shooting team. Thus, ETSU will look to take advantage of a Wofford defense that allows opponents to make better than 35% of their three-point shots in league play.
The Buccaneers are 9-4 ATS on the season and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games. They are out to prove the Southern Conference still goes through them, even if they have an entire lineup of new faces.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.