Top College Basketball Picks Monday, January 18th (2021)
When the newest edition of the AP poll is released later today, we will not see Kentucky, North Carolina, or Michigan State anywhere in the rankings. We may not even see Duke, who lost their only game last week to Virginia Tech. An already strange college basketball season is taking on a different level of strangeness without the sport’s usual bluebloods as fixtures in the top 25. It will be interesting to see if any of these marquee programs can turn their seasons around or if schools like Gonzaga and Baylor will continue to separate themselves from the rest of the country, searching for their school’s first national championship.
Here are two picks for Monday.
YTD: 59-53-1
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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St. John’s at UConn (-9.5): 2:00 PM ET
The UConn Huskies were dealt a big blow when star guard James Bouknight was ruled out indefinitely following surgery on his left elbow. Bouknight led the Big East in scoring with 20.3 PPG at the time of the injury and was also shooting better than 45% from the field. UConn has not missed a beat in his absence, as they have won the last two games without him over Butler and DePaul by an average of 9.5 points per game. That 9.5-point average is exactly the spread for today’s game against St. John’s, but there is more value in the total.
UConn has allowed 61 or fewer points in six of their last seven games. Without Bouknight, head coach Dan Hurley has preached a commitment on the defensive end of the court. His Huskies have allowed an average of 56.5 PPG over the last two games and have held each of their last two opponents to less than 47% shooting and just 33% from three-point range. Though St. John’s plays at the quickest tempo in the conference, they rank in the bottom half of the conference in most offensive metrics. They have failed to score 70 points in two of their last four games, and UConn will likely have a game plan that keys in on Julian Champagnie, who is the Red Storm’s only reliable scorer.
The under is 5-2 in UConn’s last seven games and is 14-5 in St. John’s last 19 road games. Look for another low-scoring battle between these two teams this afternoon.
Kansas at Baylor (-9.5): 9:00 PM ET
Just how dominant have the Baylor Bears been this season? An eight-point win over the previously 15th-ranked Texas Tech Red Raiders was their closest margin of victory this season and their only win that was not by double digits. Oddsmakers are clearly giving Baylor a ton of respect heading into this Big 12 showdown against Kansas, instilling them as near double-digit favorites once again. However, there is too much going against Baylor in this game, and Kansas will put up more of a fight than oddsmakers expect.
Baylor head coach Scott Drew is 2-10 ATS at home against Kansas and is 0-5 ATS as the favorite. Kansas is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games against teams with a winning percentage greater than .600. The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings between these teams, and the road team is 23-8-1 ATS in the last 32 meetings.
The fact that Kansas lost to Oklahoma State last week makes the Jayhawks an even more dangerous underdog as head coach Bill Self will have his team’s full attention. They have had six days off to rest and prepare for this matchup, while Baylor is coming off a grueling and physical win over Texas Tech on Saturday. Baylor deserves to be one of the favorites to win the national championship this year, but laying this many points against a talented Kansas team that is desperate to get back on track is a tough ask.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.