Top College Basketball Picks Monday, January 25th (2021)
COVID-19 has affected many college basketball teams this season, but perhaps none more so than the Blue Bloods. The Kansas Jayhawks are in the midst of their first three-game losing streak since 2013. Before yesterday’s win over LSU, Kentucky head coach John Calipari had a team five games under .500 since his first year at UMass. As Jeff Goodman pointed out on Twitter, those are not the only two Blue Bloods not playing up to their potential.
Here are two picks for Monday.
YTD: 70-61-1
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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Syracuse at Virginia (-7): 7:00 PM ET
Two days after cashing the over when Virginia played Georgia Tech, we are playing another total involving Virginia. However, this time the under is the better value.
Though their game against the Yellow Jackets went over the projected total, the Cavaliers did well to limit Georgia Tech to 62 points despite allowing them to shoot 60% from three-point range. That low scoring total was largely due to lockdown defense inside the arc, as Virginia allowed the Yellow Jackets to shoot just 15-for-38 (39.5%) from inside the arc. Jay Huff had five blocks, and his rim protection is vital to the Cavaliers’ pack-line defense. Georgia Tech’s 62 points were their second-lowest output of the season.
While Georgia Tech, in theory, should have presented Virginia a lot of matchup problems given their guards’ ability to isolate and breakdown defenders, Syracuse’s offense is not built that way. The Orange relies heavily on ball-screen action, which Virginia defends very well with hard hedges. The Cavaliers have held the Orange to an average of 51 PPG in their last five meetings. Meanwhile, Syracuse’s zone has been giving teams fits of late, as they have held their last two opponents to just 58.5 PPG.
The under is 4-2 in Syracuse’s last six games. Though the under is just 1-4 in Virginia’s last five games, none of those five opponents play the menacing 2-3 zone that Syracuse employs, and Virginia has had Syracuse’s number on the defensive end under Tony Bennett. Both teams playing on just two days’ rest is even more reason to like a low-scoring game.
Texas Tech at West Virginia (-2): 9:00 PM ET
Morgantown has been a House of Horrors for Texas Tech in their history with the Mountaineers. West Virginia is 7-1 SU at home against Texas Tech, and five of those seven losses came by at least nine points. Texas Tech’s program has been lifted under the guidance of head coach Chris Beard, and they have proven they can win on the road against some of the toughest teams in the conference like Texas and Oklahoma. However, until they prove they can win more consistently in Morgantown, I will back the Mountaineers at this low number.
Since Oscar Tshiebwe announced he was transferring to Kentucky, the Mountaineers have utilized a smaller lineup with just one true big man in Derek Culver. In the four games without Tshiebwe, the Mountaineers have shot 40-for-93 (43.0%) from three-point range, and their offense has more fluidity and flow. For as highly touted as Texas Tech’s defense is, they rank dead-last in the conference in three-point percentage allowed in league games. A smaller lineup also allows West Virginia to match up better with the Red Raiders, who do not start a player taller than 6’7″. The Mountaineers rank eighth in the country in offensive rebounding percentage, and they should once again have a huge advantage on the boards against Texas Tech.
Texas Tech is just 2-5 ATS in seven conference games this year, and their struggles on the road against Bob Huggins’ teams will continue.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.