Top College Basketball Picks Monday, March 8th (2021)
After Duke’s 91-73 loss to North Carolina on Saturday, one of college basketball’s most impressive streaks may be coming to an end. Duke’s 24 consecutive NCAA tournament appearances from 1996-2019 is the second-longest active streak and the third-longest streak of all-time. The Blue Devils’ streak trails only Kansas’s 30 straight appearances (which is an active streak) and North Carolina’s 27 consecutive tournament appearances from 1975-2001. However, barring an unforeseen run in the ACC tournament, Duke will be watching the Big Dance from home. Either Michigan State’s 22 consecutive tournament appearances (which is also in doubt this year) or Gonzaga’s 21 straight would replace Duke’s streak as the second-longest active streak in the country.
Here are two picks for Monday.
YTD: 121-116-3
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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Milwaukee at Cleveland State (-3.5): 6:30 PM ET
In this Horizon League semifinal, the top-seeded Cleveland State Vikings face the eighth-seed Milwaukee Panthers. As the top seed, Cleveland State had the benefit of earning a bye and playing one less game than Milwaukee, who had to beat IUPUI and Wright State just to get here. However, unlike most conference tournaments played on consecutive days, those games were spread out over a week. Also, the Panthers last played on Tuesday and had six days off to prepare for this game. Cleveland State’s advantage of playing one less game vanquished when they needed triple overtime to defeat Purdue Fort Wayne. Thus, take a look at the underdog Panthers, who look to add to the surprising results of what has already been a crazy conference tournament season.
The top seeds in the Sun Belt, Patriot, OVC, NEC, and America East tournaments have already lost. Thus, there is precedent for big upsets in conference tournaments. If you are into storylines, this Milwaukee team has a “team of destiny†feel to it, as they came back from 24 points down with just over six minutes to play to defeat top-seeded Wright State. Milwaukee already owns a win at Cleveland State this year, and they were only 3.5 point underdogs in both of those road games. The fact that they are getting the same amount of points at a neutral site this time around does not make a whole lot of sense.
The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games and are 7-2 ATS as an underdog this season. Look for Milwaukee to give top-seeded Cleveland State all it can handle.
St. Mary’s vs. Gonzaga (-17.5): 9:00 PM ET
The St. Mary’s Gaels and Gonzaga Bulldogs meet in the West Coast Conference tournament for the tenth time in the last 12 seasons. St. Mary’s has won three of those contests and have beaten the No. 1 ranked Bulldogs once in that time. Their three wins have not been nail-biters either, as the Gaels have won those contests by an average of 12.0 PPG. Gonzaga’s seven wins have come by an average of 16.1 PPG, but I will go with history and say this is too many points to be giving a dangerous Gaels team.
Bettors know exactly what they are going to get out of St. Mary’s. They are a slow-paced team that wants to take the air out of the ball and limit Gonzaga’s ability to get out in transition. The Gaels are not likely to be a heavily backed team in this contest after scoring just 52 points in their WCC tournament opener against Loyola Marymount. However, a 52-47 win is an aesthetically pleasing thing to head coach Randy Bennett, and he will try and follow the same blueprint tonight.
These teams are 1-1 ATS against each other this season, with each covering on their home court. However, Gonzaga had a suspicious end to the regular season, as they did not come close to covering their last two home games against Santa Clara and Loyola Marymount. They led Santa Clara by just two points at halftime and have the look of a team that is coasting to the NCAA tournament. Head coach Mark Few would undoubtedly like to see his team pick up their intensity level, but playing against a team as frustrating as St. Mary’s will make it hard to do so.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.