Top College Basketball Picks Saturday, December 19th (2020)
Today is one of the most loaded days of sports since the onset of the pandemic. We have an NFL doubleheader and a number of college football conference championship games starting as early as noon. Unless you are an avid college basketball fan, the games on the hardwood are likely to take a backseat to the action on the gridiron. However, the college basketball slate is mouth-watering, to say the least. Between the CBS Sports Classic, the Crossroads Classic, and a top 3 matchup between Gonzaga and Iowa, college basketball will offer plenty of excitement.
Here is a trio of bets for Saturday.
YTD: 28-15-1
All odds via BettingPros consensus
Compare odds from all major sportsbooks for College Basketball >>
Iowa vs. Gonzaga: OVER 172
(12:00 PM ET tip)
Defense will be optional in a matchup between the No. 1 ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs and No. 3 ranked Iowa Hawkeyes. This total could be 182 instead of 172 and I would still probably take the over. The only rational argument I could make for the under is that Gonzaga has not played a game in 17 days after COVID-19 forced a shutdown in team activities. Thus, there is certainly reason to think Gonzaga will be rusty, but it will not be hard to get up for this game as it is one of their last chances to make a national statement in the non-conference.
These two teams rank No. 1 and No. 2 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency rankings. Both are not shy about pushing the pace, as they each rank in the top 30 in terms of adjusted tempo. Iowa surrounds Player of the Year candidate Luka Garza with a number of deadly knockdown shooters like Jordan Bohannon and Joe Wieskamp. Meanwhile, Gonzaga can roll out a unit of five guys that is unrivaled in the country in terms of pure talent. Defense is not something Iowa is known for, and the speed of Andrew Nembhard, Joel Ayayi, and Jalen Suggs is going to prove too difficult for the Hawkeyes to defend. Lay off the spread as there is too much unknown about the rest vs. rust factor with Gonzaga, but trust that the most talented offensive team in the country will not miss a beat on that end of the floor.
North Carolina vs. Kentucky: Kentucky +3.5
(2:00 PM ET tip)
The Kentucky Wildcats are off to a 1-4 start, and at one point were down 24 points at Rupp Arena to Notre Dame in their last game. They are facing the 22nd ranked North Carolina Tar Heels, and are only getting 3.5 points? While I expect most of the betting public to side with the ranked Tar Heels, I will happily back a Kentucky team that matches up well with North Carolina.
The Tar Heels have the best and deepest frontcourt in the country. Garrison Brooks may be the best big man in the conference, and Armando Bacot and Day’Ron Sharpe are relentless on the glass. The problem is they start two freshman guards who struggle with their decision making and executing the offense. North Carolina turns the ball over on more than 22% of their possessions, and their three-point shooting is abysmal at 27.0%. Kentucky’s three-point shooting is even worse at 24.4%, but they have the size and length to negate North Carolina’s big men. The Wildcats almost pulled off a stunning comeback against Notre Dame, and they should take many positives away from the loss that can carry over to today’s game. Do not be tempted by the bait the oddsmakers are throwing at you with the low spread.
Baylor at Kansas State: UNDER 134.5
(4:00 PM ET tip)
Like Gonzaga, the Baylor Bears have also been heavily impacted by COVID-19 as they have played just one game since December 2nd. Known much more for their defensive prowess, Baylor has averaged 91.8 PPG through their first four games. However, the long layoff is going to negate their biggest advantage they have over Kansas State which is executing their offense for a full 40 minutes and outscoring the offensively challenged Wildcats.
Kansas State has been held under 70 points in four of their seven games, and Baylor has the chance to gold them to the low 50s. The Bears possess four of the best individual on-ball defenders in the country. They held an explosive Illinois team well below their season average while limiting one of the best guards in the country in Ayo Dosunmu to 33% shooting. While it may take some time for Baylor’s offense to get back in rhythm, their defense will not miss a beat.
Join the BettingPros Discord Chat for Live Betting Advice >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.