Top College Basketball Picks Saturday, February 13th (2021)
Today is a big day in college basketball, as the first March Madness bracket preview takes place this afternoon. The DI Men’s Basketball Committee will reveal its top 16 seeds, or No. 1 through No. 4 seeds in each region. While a lot can change between now and Selection Sunday, this early reveal can be very telling. For the most part, teams have gone on to earn seeds within one seed of their original placement. There are always some exceptions, like the 2017-18 Oklahoma team that was a No. 4 seed in the original bracket preview but lost four of their next 14 games to end the season and ended up with a No. 10 seed in the big dance.
Since 2017, nine teams that were not in the original bracket preview have gone on to earn a top-four seed in the NCAA Tournament. Three of those teams were No. 3 seeds while the other six were No. 4 seeds. These late risers have been relatively successful in the tournament, as seven of the nine reached the Sweet 16, and two reached the national championship game.
Here are three picks for Saturday.
YTD: 94-84-3
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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Loyola Chicago (-3) at Drake: 12:00 PM ET
Though there are plenty of top 25 teams in action today, including two ranked vs. ranked matchups, many will argue the MVC matchup between Loyola Chicago and Drake is the game of the day. The two teams have a combined record of 36-4, and the Ramblers’ start has been recognized as they earned their first AP top 25 ranking since 1985. While Drake has been the second-best team in the country from an ATS perspective (15-3 ATS), they have yet to play a Quad 1 opponent, and 11 of their 18 games have come from Quad 4. They will have a considerable step up in competition against a Loyola Chicago team looking to take control of the MVC race with a big weekend in Iowa.
6’9″ senior Cameron Krutwig is the only significant player on this year’s Ramblers roster that was a part of their Final Four run in 2017-18. However, this Loyola-Chicago team is every bit as good as that team and have been eagerly awaiting a high-profile game like this one on national television to show what they are capable of.
Loyola Chicago leads the conference in almost every major defensive category, including adjusted defensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, turnover percentage, and three-point field goal percentage. The latter is the most critical statistic when facing a Drake team that shoots 37.5% from three-point range. Not many teams have been able to limit Drake’s three-point shooting barrages, but the Ramblers’ ability to do so will go a long way in deciding this game.
After starting the season 13-0 ATS, the Bulldogs have covered just two of their last five games. Thus, a more battle-tested Loyola Chicago that is 12-4-1 ATS is the more trusted team in a game of this magnitude.
Indiana at Ohio State (-6): 12:00 PM ET
When the top 16 seeds get revealed later this afternoon, we may very well see the Ohio State Buckeyes as a No. 1 seed. The Buckeyes are the only team in the country with eight Quad 1 wins and have zero bad losses from Quad 3 and 4 combined. Ohio State is 9-1 SU at home this year, with their only loss coming against Purdue in a game where they blew an 11-point lead. The Buckeyes have won eight of their last nine games and are the far superior team in this matchup.
Though “a win is a win,†the Hoosiers flirted with disaster on the road at Northwestern. They need two last-second shots to force double overtime and barely held on for a three-point win over a team that had lost nine straight games. That does not exactly instill confidence as they face a team as talented and skilled as the Buckeyes.
Ohio State is 12-7-1 ATS and is 6-4 ATS as home favorites. By contrast, Indiana is a solid 11-7-1 ATS but is just 5-6-1 ATS in Big Ten games. Ohio State has beaten the second, fourth, fifth, and seventh-best teams in the conference in their recent run, so disposing of the eighth-best Hoosiers should not be a difficult task.
North Carolina at Virginia (-6.5): 6:00 PM ET
The North Carolina Tar Heels have played better basketball of late, winning four of their last five games. However, the last three teams they have lost to (Georgia Tech, Florida State, Clemson) all have something in common: they are all great defensive teams. Thus, they will suffer a similar fate against the Virginia Cavaliers, who is the conference’s best defensive team.
As impressive as UNC has been of late, Virginia has been more impressive winning ten of their last 11 games. Their lone loss in that span was to their in-state rival Virginia Tech, in which they had a 10-point lead but only scored 22 points in the second half. Though their offense struggled in that contest, it has not struggled much lately. This is perhaps Tony Bennett’s best offensive team, and they are one of five teams in the country that rank in the top 16 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
Though North Carolina has two experienced starters in Garrison Brooks and Leaky Black, their inexperience in the backcourt with two true freshmen will be their undoing in this road battle. Look for Virginia’s Kihei Clark and Reece Beekman to fluster UNC’s Caleb Love and Kerwin Walton. Love and Walton are primarily responsible for the fact that the Tar Heels turned the ball over on 20.5% of their possessions, which must have the Cavaliers licking their chops.
The general public will overvalue UNC in this game because of their win at Duke, but smarter bettors know not to be swayed by that result over a poor Blue Devils squad. The fact remains that the Tar Heels are 2-6 ATS on the road this year and will be outclassed in Charlottesville.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.