Top College Basketball Picks Saturday, February 20th (2021)
Saturdays are the best day of the week for college basketball fans, as a marathon of games starts at noon ET and goes all the way through midnight. As we get closer to the start of conference tournaments and Selection Sunday, each game takes on more meaning. There are 14 top-25 teams in action and two ranked vs. ranked matchups to highlight the day’s slate, both of which come from the Big 12. However, given the weather and what the state of Texas has been through the past week, there is too much uncertainty surrounding each of those games. Thus, we focus on a trio of other games that can be viewed as a bit more under-the-radar than those top 25 clashes.
Here are three picks for Saturday.
YTD: 104-88-3
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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Notre Dame at Syracuse (-3): 2:00 PM ET
After struggling to an 0-5 start in conference play, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have won six of their last eight conference games. The positive momentum is primarily due to a resurgent offense that has scored at least 79 points in four of their previous five games. Meanwhile, Syracuse ranks second in the ACC with 76.6 PPG. In late-game situations where a game is close, Syracuse is a hard team to beat because of how lethal they are from the free-throw line. They shoot a league-best 79% from the line as a team, and three of their starters average better than 85% from the charity stripe. In what should be a close contest between two sizzling offenses, the over appears the best bet.
Notre Dame is one of the nation’s best three-point shooting teams, as their 38.1% three-point percentage ranks 26th in the country. That is a vital statistic when facing Syracuse’s 2-3 zone that limits opponents’ touches in the paint. The Irish take care of the ball better than anyone in the ACC and also force opponents into the fewest percentage of turnovers. Thus, the fewer possessions end in turnovers, the greater the chance for points to be scored.
The Fighting Irish have an over/under record of 5-4 as road underdogs, while Syracuse has been a profitable 6-5 to the over in their 11 ACC games. It is a high total, but certainly one that both of these high-scoring teams can exceed.
Illinois (-5) at Minnesota: 3:30 PM ET
Backing Minnesota at home, fading Minnesota on the road. This theory seems closest to a sure thing in what has been one of the most unpredictable college basketball seasons ever. The Golden Gophers continued their mind-boggling home and road trends with two consecutive road losses to Maryland and Indiana. That brings their season records to 13-1 SU at home and 0-8 SU on the road. Minnesota has beaten two projected No. 1 seeds in Michigan and Ohio State at “The Barn,†and a third in Illinois may very well also fall by the wayside.
Despite Minnesota’s notable home success, Illinois will still get plenty of love from the general public. They are the fifth-ranked team in the country and are in the middle of a six-game winning streak. However, three of those wins came against the worst three teams in the conference, and Illinois’ best road win is at an Indiana team who is 7-7 in the conference and 12-9 overall. The Illini have not covered any of their two previous games against two of the conference’s worst teams in Nebraska and Northwestern, so one should not be brimming with confidence in backing them.
Virginia (-1) at Duke: 8:00 PM ET
The Duke Blue Devils were a hot team in the news this week, but for all the wrong reasons. Freshman forward Jalen Johnson opted out for the remainder of the regular season, which led to heated debates about whether he was a quitter or merely doing the right thing to protect his future. No matter which argument you side with, his sudden departure leaves a massive void in Duke’s lineup. That is not an ideal position to be in when welcoming the Virginia Cavaliers, the top team in the conference.
Virginia is three games in the win column clear of second-place Florida State in the ACC standings. The Cavaliers look to get the bad taste out of their mouths from an 81-60 rout in Tallahassee on Monday. This year, Virginia has been great in this spot, as they are 2-0-1 ATS off a loss and 4-1-1 as road favorites.
There is no doubting that Mike Krzyzewski will go down as one of the best college basketball coaches of all-time, but even he is unlikely to rally his troops given the current climate. It is the middle of a pandemic, the team just lost their best player, and their only hopes of playing in the big dance are to win the ACC tournament. The Cavaliers are an experienced bunch and will relish the opportunity to kick a Duke team while they are down.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.