Top College Basketball Picks Saturday, January 16th (2021)
We are in mid-January, and we have yet to bring up college basketball’s NET rankings in our daily column. It will be interesting to see how the NCAA tournament selection committee evaluates teams with such unbalanced schedules as impacted by the pandemic. Does the NET become a more or less useful tool? Only time will tell, but in the meantime, it is interesting to note that only three teams in Division I have four quadrant 1 wins at the moment. Not surprising is Gonzaga with a 4-0 Quad 1 record, but Missouri and Oklahoma State are the only other two teams who have racked up four Quad 1 wins at the moment. All three of these teams, and many more, are in action on a jam-packed slate.
Here are three picks for Saturday.
YTD: 57-50-1
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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Kentucky (-1) at Auburn: 2:00 PM ET
The fact that Kentucky is favored at Auburn says more about the names on both teams’ jerseys and less about what they have accomplished on the court this year. Auburn presents a great mismatch for Kentucky, and the fact that the Tigers are catching points at home made me spring to the betting windows.
Kentucky showed the potential to turn their poor season around with a three-game winning streak to start the new calendar year but was then exposed by an Alabama team that spread them out all over the court. Alabama made 14 three-point field goals and shot better than 46% from deep, as the bigger and slower Kentucky defenders could not keep up with the quicker Crimson Tide athletes. Alabama won by 20 points at Rupp Arena, and the margin could have been bigger if not for their best player Herb Jones getting injured.
If you thought Alabama was a mismatch for Kentucky, Auburn is notorious for small-ball and jacking up a ton of threes. There is a chance the Tigers get Justin Powell back from a head injury that forced him to miss the last three games. He practiced on Monday of this week but was ultimately ruled out of their game on Wednesday against Georgia. If Powell can play, that gives Auburn a lethal lineup on the floor where he can return to his normal shooting guard role while sensational freshman Sharife Cooper runs the point. For an excellent summary of how this game is likely to play out, look at Rob Dauster’s explanation of why Kentucky had difficulty defending Alabama.
Kentucky is just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games, but continue to get the benefit of the doubt from oddsmakers. Auburn has not lost a game outside of Quadrants 1 and 2 all year, and they will not lose this one to a Wildcats team that is one of John Calipari’s most seriously flawed teams since he has been at Kentucky.
Michigan (-5) at Minnesota: 2:00 PM ET
The Michigan Wolverines made us pay for betting against them on Tuesday night, as they were up 40 points at one point on Wisconsin in a game where they were two-point favorites. Michigan is starting to enter the conversation of teams that belong in the same tier with Gonzaga and Baylor and have separated themselves as the class of one of the country’s deepest conferences.
Though Michigan has won their last five conference games by an average of 17.8 PPG, they face a Minnesota team undefeated at home this season. The Golden Gophers have beaten Iowa by seven, Michigan State by 25, and Ohio State by 17 in their three conference home games. They have had six days to prepare for Michigan, having last played on Sunday, so their fresher legs give them an edge.
Michigan has not played on the road since December 31st. While the Wolverines rank first in conference games in adjusted defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage allowed, they are susceptible from long range as their three-point percentage allowed ranks ninth in the conference. The Wolverines are too good defensively to let Minnesota star guard Marcus Carr beat them single-handedly, but Carr did average 17.5 PPG in two games against the Wolverines last year.
In Minnesota’s 75-67 home win over Michigan last year, the Golden Gophers held the Wolverines to just 41.9% shooting and out-rebounded them 33-26. Another superb defensive effort is necessary to knock off Michigan but is certainly possible considering they have held opponents to 58 PPG in their last two home games. Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in their last five home games, and even the best in the conference will find out how difficult it is to win at Williams Arena.
Baylor (-4) at Texas Tech: 4:00 PM ET
Just as we expect Minnesota to battle a Michigan team that has not had many close contests this year, we too like Texas Tech’s chances of taking a Baylor team that has not won any game by less than 11 points to the wire.
Baylor has lost three of their last four games at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are one of the few teams in the conference, let alone the country, that can match Baylor’s defensive intensity and effectiveness. Though the Red Raiders squandered a golden opportunity for a home win against the conference’s elite when playing Kansas last month, they held the Jayhawks to a season-low of 58 points and forced 16 turnovers. Texas Tech has played much better of late offensively, averaging 84 PPG over the last three games. Georgetown transfer Mac McClung is one of four guards averaging in double figures for the Red Raiders, and they will need a plethora of scoring options against Baylor’s talented defense.
Taking nothing away from Baylor’s impressive 11-0 start, but they do not have any road wins over teams ranked inside KenPom’s top-90. This is the Bears’ third road game of the last four games, and they have a short turnaround when facing Kansas at home on Monday.
Texas Tech can build off the momentum of Wednesday’s big road win at Texas and make a statement to the rest of the conference that they are not a team that should be forgotten about in the Big 12 race.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.