Top College Basketball Picks Saturday, January 23rd (2021)
In his daily Breakfast Buffet column, college basketball analyst Jon Rothstein talked about the importance of returning personnel and overall players’ experience for the most successful teams to date this season. A mind-blowing 90% of the starters of the current AP poll Top 10 were all a part of their teams last season. Thus, it is no secret why programs like Kentucky or Duke, which have relied heavily on production from transfers or freshmen, are struggling this year. Keep that statistic in mind during the NCAA Tournament, as it seems the more experienced teams are more suited to navigate this crazy college basketball season.
Here are three picks for Saturday.
YTD: 65-61-1
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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UConn at Creighton (-6): 12:00 PM ET
Until UConn’s last game against St. John’s, being without leading scorer James Bouknight was not an issue for the Huskies. UConn clamped down defensively in their first two games without Bouknight, holding DePaul and Butler to 56.5 PPG in two road wins. However, the Huskies missed Bouknight’s lack of experience in their last game against St. John’s when the Huskies blew a 14-point lead and lost 74-70 at home.
While UConn was able to drag the game through the mud and keep the tempo at their pace for most of it, St. John’s relentless pressure turned the game into more of a frenetic pace. It was clear the Huskies were not comfortable playing that way, and their lack of depth without Bouknight proved to be their undoing. Creighton plays at one of the fastest paces in the conference, especially at home. While they do not press as often as St. John’s, their up-and-down style will pose problems for UConn once again. The Huskies were able to keep DePaul and Butler in a half-court game, but the Bluejays are much too explosive.
Many are worried about Creighton’s outlook after losing two consecutive games by four points each to Butler and Providence. However, Creighton played against Butler without star point guard Marcus Zegarowski. While Zegarowski was back for the Providence game, Creighton’s leading scorer Denzel Mahoney had his second-lowest scoring output of the season in that game. Mahoney went 1-for-10 from the floor, and Creighton shot just 4-for-23 from three-point range against the Friars. The fact that they were still in that game late despite their offensive woes suggests Creighton is a better team than their win-loss record shows, and they will prove to be too much offensively for UConn to handle today.
Georgia Tech at Virginia (-9): 8:00 PM ET
After getting off to a 2-3 start, Georgia Tech has used a sizzling offense to spark a five-game winning streak. All of a sudden, the Yellow Jackets can taste their first NCAA Tournament bid since 2010. Georgia Tech has averaged 79.2 PPG during their five-game winning streak and even scored 83 points in their last game against Clemson, one of the country’s best defensive teams. Given that Virginia’s defense is not playing at the elite level that we are accustomed to under Tony Bennett, the over presents a lot of value.
Virginia’s pack-line defense is designed to prevent easy baskets, but it leaves them susceptible to the three-point shot. When facing the Yellow Jackets, that is bad news, who have the second-highest three-point shooting percentage in conference play at 42.6%. Georgia Tech also ranks second in conference play in two-point shooting percentage and effective field goal percentage.
Not only is the over tantalizing for what Georgia Tech’s offense is capable of doing to Virginia’s defense, but this is Bennett’s best offensive team he has had at Virginia. The Cavaliers are first in the conference in offensive efficiency, first in turnover percentage, and third in effective field goal percentage. Do not be thrown off by this matchup’s low-scoring trends in years past, as these two teams have much more firepower than previous years.
Oregon State at Oregon (-14): 10:30 PM ET
The Oregon State Beavers were one of the most surprising teams in college basketball last week after upsetting Arizona State and USC in back-to-back games. Oregon State’s chances of making it a third-straight upset over Oregon just got a lot more realistic after Ducks head coach Dana Altman said that Chris Duarte and LJ Figueroa would not play tonight due to COVID-19 protocols.
Duarte is Oregon’s do-it-all guard who ranks second in the conference in scoring at 18.4 PPG and first in steals with 2.5 steals per game. Thus, Oregon will miss his defense as much as his scoring, and Oregon will have to use someone else to slow down Oregon State guard Ethan Thompson who ranks ninth in the conference in scoring. LJ Figueroa is also a big loss, as the St. John’s transfer has chipped in 10.1 PPG and a team-leading 6.5 RPG.
Oregon State has won three of the last four meetings between these teams and will look to make it four wins in the last five against an undermanned Ducks squad.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.