Top College Basketball Picks Saturday, January 2nd (2020)
College basketball fans, enjoy the day. While yesterday was a light slate so as not to compete with the College Football Playoff, college basketball gets its day in the sun before the NFL takes over again on Sunday. Schedule makers knew exactly what they were doing, as 16 ranked teams are in action on a day that the sport gets to itself. In addition, we highlight one of the most exciting ranked vs. ranked matchups of the season thus far.
Here are three picks for Saturday.
YTD: 44-30-1
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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Texas at Kansas: Kansas -4.5
(12:00 PM ET tip)
The Kansas Jayhawks were overmatched on opening night against Gonzaga. That loss can easily be forgiven, as the Bulldogs have been steamrolling everyone in their path. It did not look much prettier for Kansas as they had to grind out a win against a struggling Kentucky team and needed missed free throws in a non-cover against Creighton at home. However, after back-to-back wins over Texas Tech on the road and against West Virginia by 14 at home, the Jayhawks have made a believer out of me.
The Texas Longhorns are long and athletic, and it would not be a huge upset if they won at Phog Allen today. However, they have played just one team ranked in the top-80 in three-point shooting percentage, and that was the game they lost at home to Villanova. Kansas shoots 38.5% from three-point range, which ranks 32nd in the country. They are going to challenge Texas from the perimeter in ways they have not been challenged all year. Ochai Agbaji, Christian Braun and Marcus Garrett are all shooting better than 40% from deep, so Texas’s backcourt is going to have to do its best to run them off the three-point line. The Jayhawks were 16-for-37 (43.2%) from three-point range against the Mountaineers and can expect a similar result today if they continue to shoot that well.
The Jayhawks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record and are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with better than a .600 winning percentage. Look for them to once again show up in a big spot.
Missouri at Arkansas: -5.5
(12:00 PM ET tip)
Man, talk about a fishy line. Heading into Missouri’s matchup with Tennessee on Wednesday, many were wondering if the Tigers had what it took to win the SEC. After a 20-point loss, now they find themselves sizable underdogs to Arkansas. The Razorbacks are 9-0, and won their SEC opener by 12 on the road against Auburn.
The Razorbacks blend a number of impact transfers with perhaps the best freshman in the conference in Moses Moody. Moody is one of five Arkansas players averaging in double figures, and head coach Eric Musselman wears opponents down by playing a rotation of nine guys who all average at least 10 minutes per game. The Razorbacks rank in the top 40 in the country in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency and rank in the top 20 in the country in taking care of the basketball.
Missouri is due for a letdown after a humbling home loss to Tennessee in their conference opener. Add in the fact that the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these schools, and we will confidently back the Hogs.
San Francisco at Gonzaga: OVER 163.5
(10:00 PM ET tip)
Last week we assumed Virginia’s historically good defense under Tony Bennett would find a way to slow down Gonzaga’s high-powered attack. After the Bulldogs scored 98 against them, we vowed never again bet an under in a Gonzaga game. We certainly are not backing the under in a game against San Francisco who has scored 70 or more points in seven of their 11 games.
Gonzaga became the first team ever to beat four teams ranked in the top-20 of the AP Poll in their first seven games of the season. Add in the fact that they have not scored less than 87 points in any of their nine games, and we are not worried about their ability to score. Realistically, in betting this over you are only hoping for 65 or so points from the Dons. They have played three games against KenPom’s top 75 teams, and have averaged 65.3 PPG in those games. None of those teams play at the pace Gonzaga does, so a more sped up Dons team should be able to do their part in the scoring.
The over is 5-1 in San Francisco’s last six road games and is 22-6 in Gonzaga’s last 28 home games. Do not overthink this one, and cash the over.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.