Top College Basketball Picks Saturday, January 30th (2021)
As the calendar inches closer to February, the last month of the college basketball regular season will feature a plethora of conference battles with teams jockeying for position in the standings and strengthening their NCAA tournament resumes. While many teams do not have any more opportunities in the non-conference to earn resume-building wins, those in the Big 12 and SEC will have such an opportunity today. College basketball fans will be treated to a respite from conference play for a day as the Big 12/SEC challenge presents several mouth-watering matchups. We preview some of those matchups and other enticing games in today’s column.
Here are three picks for Saturday.
YTD: 78-65-1
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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Alabama (-1) at Oklahoma: 12:00 PM ET
Before the season started, the Big 12/SEC matchup between Alabama and Oklahoma was not widely thought of as the matchup that would generate the most buzz in this challenge of two power conferences. However, each of these teams has played themselves into the top tier of their respective conferences, and each is on a path to earning top-four seeds in the NCAA Tournament. Each team has outstanding senior leadership, with Alabama’s Herbert Jones and John Petty and Oklahoma’s Austin Reaves and Brady Manek leading their respective teams. While there is no denying that the Crimson Tide are among the hottest teams in the country, the Sooners are more battle-tested and well-equipped to slow down the explosive Alabama attack.
Outside of Baylor, who is arguably the best defensive team in the country, Oklahoma is the Big 12’s best defensive team in a conference littered with elite defensive teams. The Sooners have held four of their last five opponents to less than 70 points and held Baylor’s explosive offense to a season-low 76 points on their home floor. Oklahoma comes into this game with a ton of momentum, having beaten two of their biggest rivals in Kansas and Texas in back-to-back games.
Oklahoma has just one home loss all year, a two-point loss to Texas Tech. They are 9-5 ATS on the season and 5-0 ATS in their last five games. They are 4-1 ATS as an underdog (2-0 ATS as a home underdog) this season, including outright wins in their last two games as a ‘dog. The Big 12 is a much deeper conference than the SEC this year, and Oklahoma will set the tone for the Big 12 with a statement win over Alabama in the early time slot.
Texas Tech (-2) at LSU: 2:00 PM ET
The LSU Tigers are small home underdogs against the 10th-ranked Texas Tech Red Raiders, in large part because they sit in second place in the SEC with a 6-3 conference record and an 11-4 overall record. They are an explosive offensive team that ranks sixth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and are one of the best two-point shooting teams in the country at 55.9%. However, to say they are poor defensively is an understatement, as they have allowed seven of their 15 opponents to score 80 or more points. LSU has feasted on the weaker teams in the conference and has just one win over teams currently ranked in KenPom’s top 60. Thus, the Red Raiders will present a challenge unlike what they see daily in conference play.
Texas Tech ranks in the top 23 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. This year, they have big road wins over Texas and Oklahoma and gave Baylor their toughest battle of the season thus far. The Red Raiders are in a great buy-low spot as they have lost two consecutive games, but those two opponents (Baylor and West Virginia) are tougher than any team LSU has played to date, except for Alabama. LSU lost by 30 to the Crimson Tide, as the young Tigers who do not have a senior in their regular rotation were completely outmatched.
The Red Raiders are a more experienced, physical, and cohesive basketball team. Their toughness defensively will limit Cameron Thomas’s scoring and will force LSU to play at a pace that they are uncomfortable playing.
Florida State (-3) at Georgia Tech: 4:00 PM ET
As I wrote when previewing Florida State’s game against Miami on Wednesday night, the Seminoles are on an ascent to be the team to beat in the ACC and have the look of a team that can make a Final Four. As all Leonard Hamilton’s teams do, they wear you down with relentless full-court pressure. The Seminoles have nine players that average at least 13 minutes per game. They have won five straight games, and four of those wins have come by at least 13 points. Florida State has not earned those wins over cupcakes either, as North Carolina and Louisville are in the top-five of the conference standings, while Clemson spent multiple weeks ranked in the top 25. Thus, the Seminoles are a great bet at a low number to take care of business in Atlanta against Georgia Tech.
Florida State beat Georgia Tech 74-61 at home on December 15th. In fact, the Seminoles are 5-0 SU in their last five games against the Yellow Jackets, winning by an average of 13.6 PPG in that span. The Seminoles rank third in the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency and second in effective field goal percentage allowed. In their first meeting, Florida State held Georgia Tech leading scorer Jose Alvarado (18.1 PPG) to a season-low seven points. Look for Alvarado and company to once again struggle against a Seminoles team that is hitting their stride at the right time.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.