Top College Basketball Picks Saturday, March 13th (2021)
Another exciting day of college basketball is on tap as 15 more teams will punch their tickets to the NCAA tournament. The championship action gets started early at 11:00 AM ET with the America East championship between UMass Lowell and Hartford. Games continue throughout the day, with the Big West championship tipping off at 11:30 PM ET to conclude the day’s action. When we wake up tomorrow morning, we will know 26 of the 68 teams that will play for a national championship. Buckle up and enjoy one of the most exciting college basketball days of the year.
Here are three picks for Saturday.
YTD: 126-125-3
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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Ohio State vs. Michigan (-6): 1:00 PM ET
The Ohio State Buckeyes are fortunate to still be alive in the Big Ten Tournament. They blew an 18-point halftime lead against Purdue and had to sweat out a win in overtime to earn a spot in the semifinals. Meanwhile, Michigan used a dominant second half against Maryland to easily cover the eight-point spread and set up their second matchup of the season against their biggest rivals.
The most impressive part of Michigan’s victory over Maryland was that they dominated despite Hunter Dickinson scoring six points and Isaiah Livers being held scoreless. Instead, the Wolverines backcourt controlled the game as Mike Smith and Eli Brooks combined for 34 points. The fact that Michigan seemingly has a different weapon that can beat you on any given night is the biggest reason they should dispatch Ohio State. While the Buckeyes rely heavily on E.J. Liddell and Duane Washington Jr., the Wolverines are a much more versatile offense that is impossible to prepare for.
Ohio State is just 1-5 ATS in their last six games, while Michigan thrives against ranked opponents with a 6-2 ATS record against ranked teams. The Wolverines will cover and earn their spot in the Big Ten Championship game in the process.
Tennessee vs. Alabama (-4.5): 1:00 PM ET
Similar to the reasons we picked Michigan over Ohio State are the reasons we like Alabama over Tennessee. The Crimson Tide has more weapons than Tennessee and has proven they can win any style of basketball game. The fact that their best player, Herbert Jones, is their fourth-leading scorer tells you all you need to know about Alabama.
For as much love as their offense gets with their conference-leading three-point shooting percentage and effective field goal percentage, their defense is just as good. Alabama has held SEC opponents to only 25.9% from three-point range in league play, and their fast tempo is something Tennessee will be uncomfortable with.
Tennessee has consecutive wins over the Florida Gators, but one of those wins came when Florida was without Tre Mann. Alabama’s dominating win over Mississippi State yesterday was much more impressive, and they have only lost one game in the last five weeks. The Volunteers will also be thin up front as John Fulkerson (9.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG) is out after taking an elbow to the head yesterday. The Crimson Tide will wear down the Volunteers over 40 minutes, and their dynamic offense will allow them to pull away eventually.
Oklahoma State vs. Texas (-1): 6:00 PM ET
While the nation was watching Oklahoma State’s thrilling upset of Baylor in the Big 12 semifinals last night, the Texas Longhorns got a free pass to the championship game after Kansas could not play because of positive COVID-19 tests within their program. Thus, bettors will be enamored by Cade Cunningham and the rest of the Cowboys, and Oklahoma State is sure to be the more heavily backed team, just as they were last night. By now, you should be familiar with our betting philosophy that we always prefer to be on the contrarian side.
Fading Oklahoma State is playing with fire as their impressive ATS streak continues. They now have ten Quad 1 wins, second in the country, only behind Illinois’ 11. However, this play is based purely on how much hype the Cowboys have earned in the last two weeks. Thus, we like the allure of taking advantage of an overreaction from the general public. Add in the fact that Oklahoma State is likely to suffer a hangover after beating one of the top two contenders for the national championship, and we are more than happy to back the pesky Longhorns.
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