Top College Basketball Picks Sunday, February 21st (2021)
COVID-19 deprived college basketball fans of a dream matchup earlier this season when a game between the No. 1 ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs and No. 2 ranked Baylor Bears was canceled. While those two teams will likely not meet this year unless it is in the national championship game, today’s colossal Big Ten matchup provides a great alternative. In what is the best regular-season game played to date, the No. 3 ranked Michigan Wolverines travel to the No. 4 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes. While this rivalry has been non-competitive on the gridiron over the last two decades, the basketball rivalry has been sensational. The two teams have split their previous 12 meetings, and this matchup of two potential No. 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament should not disappoint.
We preview that game and more in today’s column.
Here are three picks for Sunday.
YTD: 104-91-3
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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Michigan at Ohio State (-1.5): 1:00 PM ET
Today marks the 130th meeting between the Wolverines and Buckeyes, but the first in which both have top-five rankings in the AP Poll. Between them, they have won 11 straight games. Michigan has lost just one road game (their only loss of the season), while Ohio State has only lost one home game this year, so something has to give. Ohio State has nine Quad 1 wins this year, which is two more than any other team in the country. While numbers and statistics like that will sway many bettors to side with the home team, I will back the more trusted Wolverines.
There is some concern surrounding Michigan, considering they are still just one week removed from a 22-day COVID-19 shutdown. Thus, bettors who back the Wolverines should be confident that the two games they have played since their return is enough to get their legs back. Michigan did not play cupcakes in their return, as Wisconsin and Rutgers are both in position for top eight seeds in the NCAA tournament. They needed a late surge to beat Wisconsin and needed to grind out a win over Rutgers, but both games should have them feeling battle tested and mentally focused enough to take on the Buckeyes.
Michigan is one of the most versatile offensive teams in the country and will be a handful for this Ohio State defense to contain. The Wolverines have six players averaging at least eight points per game, and four of those players shoot better than 36% from three-point range. Not only does Michigan lead the Big Ten in effective field goal percentage, but their shut-down defense holds opponents to the lowest field goal percentage as well. They allow the lowest three-point shooting percentage in the conference and protect the rim inside the arc at the conference’s best rate. Defense travels, so they say, but Michigan’s offense will have as much to do with their success.
The Wolverines are 12-4 ATS and 4-1 ATS on the road. They are as dependable from an ATS perspective as any team in the country and will continue to exert their dominance over the country’s most competitive conference.
Wisconsin (-6.5) at Northwestern: 7:00 PM ET
The Northwestern Wildcats started the season 3-0 in Big Ten play and even beat the aforementioned Ohio State Buckeyes. Since then, they have lost 12 straight conference games, and their 3-12 record is only better than Nebraska’s. However, if you watched Northwestern last month, their 3-12 conference record does not tell the whole story. In that time, they have pushed No. 5 Illinois to the brink on the road, lost in two overtimes to Indiana, and have just one loss by double digits. The Wildcats are on the cusp of breaking through, and it has an excellent chance to do so tonight against Wisconsin.
The Badgers have lost their last two games to Michigan and Iowa by an average of 11.5 PPG. However, Wisconsin has accumulated a 9-7 conference record by beating the league’s worst teams. Wisconsin is 0-5 against the top-five teams in the conference and 9-2 against the teams ranked below them in the standings. One of those wins was a 68-52 home win over Northwestern, but the Wildcats have played much better offensively of late. Since that loss, they have averaged 66 PPG and have been held to less than 70 points just twice in their last five home games.
Wisconsin is a tournament team but is an overrated squad that has feasted on a soft schedule. While those trends would suggest that they are the right side when playing Northwestern, the Wildcats have been playing too well lately to fade them in this one.
Butler at Xavier (-8.5): 7:00 PM ET
The Xavier Musketeers have played eight fewer conference games than the Butler Bulldogs due to a lengthy shutdown earlier this month. Xavier has lost their two games since returning from the pause by an average of 8.5 PPG. While Butler is mired in a two-game losing streak of their own, I am not convinced that Xavier should be this big of a favorite against anyone at the moment.
Many bettors will be swayed by the fact that the Musketeers beat the Bulldogs by 13 at Hinkle Fieldhouse in late January. Butler shot themselves in the foot by shooting just 5-for-25 from three-point range in that matchup, while their best defender and senior leader Aaron Thompson was dealing with foul trouble most of the game. Butler shoots 33.7% on the year from three-point range in league play, while Xavier ranks seventh out of 11 teams in league play in defending the three-point line. Thus, some regression to the mean from this category alone should make for a closer rematch.
Xavier is just 4-6 ATS as a home favorite this year, while Butler is 6-5 ATS after a loss. While the Bulldogs have not inspired much confidence of late, make this play confidently as a fade on Xavier.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.