Top College Basketball Picks Sunday, January 17th (2021)
And then there were six. That is how many undefeated teams are left in Division I men’s basketball after Minnesota laid the wood to previously unbeaten Michigan. The Golden Gophers are undefeated 11-0 at home and 0-4 on the road, so bettors will likely pay attention to their home and road games going forward. With none of the remaining unbeaten teams in action today, we focus our attention on a Big Ten battle and a rematch between two of the top teams in Conference USA.
Here are two picks for Sunday.
YTD: 59-51-1
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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Penn State at Purdue (-5.5): 1:00 PM ET
The Penn State Nittany Lions are the most rested team in the Big Ten after positive COVID-19 tests within the program forced a more than two-week shutdown. Penn State has not played a game since December 30th, but their pause may have come at exactly the right time, given that they were in the midst of a three-game losing streak at the time. I anticipate most of the betting action to be on Purdue in this game, given they are coming off a big 12-point win at Indiana. However, we are happy to be on the contrarian side with the overlooked Nittany Lions.
Two of Penn State’s last three losses have come by a combined six points on the road at Michigan and Indiana. They have also beaten a top-20 Virginia Tech team by 20 points on the road, so playing away from home does not concern them. Many will point out that their long pause because of COVID-19 will hurt them and make them rusty. I will argue the opposite: it gives them a chance to recharge their batteries and play with more of a sense of urgency in their first game back.
Penn State is 5-2 ATS on the road in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage greater than .600. The road team is 4-0-1 in the last five games between these schools, and the underdog is 4-1-1 in their last six meetings. All of these trends favor Penn State, and they will make good with another cover this afternoon.
Western Kentucky at Marshall (-2.5): 2:00 PM ET
Western Kentucky and Marshall played on Friday night in Bowling Green, and the Hilltoppers won 81-73. Western Kentucky got a season-high 22 points from senior Josh Anderson, and future NBA-bound Charles Bassey was a monster inside, scoring 21 points and securing 18 rebounds. However, Marshall will make the necessary adjustments, and the result will be different in today’s rematch in West Virginia.
Friday’s final score does not tell the whole story as the Thundering Herd trailed by just one point halfway through the second half. Marshall needs to do a much better job on the glass in this game, as they were out-rebounded 46-29 on Friday. However, Marshall forced 20 turnovers and had 20 assists to Western Kentucky’s 11. The game’s biggest difference was the Hilltoppers’ 21 free throw attempts compared to Marshall’s five. Look for the Thundering Herd to be more aggressive going to the basket while benefiting from some “home cooking†from the referees.
Marshall has played consecutive games against an opponent once earlier this season. They lost to Louisiana Tech by seven in the first meeting but rebounded and beat the Bulldogs by seven one day later. Meanwhile, Western Kentucky has lost the second of their two back-to-backs against Charlotte and Louisiana Tech after winning their openers. Thus, count on the Thundering Herd to once again turn in a better effort on the second leg against an opponent and secure an important home victory.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.