Top College Basketball Picks Thursday, January 14th (2021)
While everything seemed to go our way in non-conference play, it has taken awhile to get our momentum going now that conference play is in full swing. Betting on sports, in general, this year was always going to be tough given how much the pandemic and COVID-19 influenced games across all leagues. No one summarized this thought better on how the college basketball season has played out to this point than Jon Rothstein.
Looking to capitalize on a 3-0 day, here are two picks for Thursday.
YTD: 55-48-1
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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Washington State at UCLA (-9.5): 5:00 PM ET
No Chris Smith, no problem for the UCLA Bruins. Since UCLA’s lone senior tore his ACL against Utah, the Bruins have won three straight games against some of the Pac-12’s best teams, including road wins over Arizona State and Arizona. Mick Cronin’s group is clearly building off the momentum of last season when they won 11 of their final 14 games. The addition of Kentucky transfer Johnny Juzang is paying huge dividends as he is one of four active Bruins averaging in double figures.
Laying double digits with UCLA may seem like a risky proposition, given each of their last six games has been decided by nine points or less. However, Washington State is arguably the worst team in the conference despite their 9-2 record. Losing all-conference forward CJ Elleby was a devastating loss for the Cougars, and none of their nine wins have come against the top 127 ranked teams in the country, according to KenPom. Despite hitting 45.8% of their three-point attempts in their last game against Stanford, the Cardinal exposed Washington State’s lack of depth, and they ultimately fell by 15 points.
UCLA will be excited to return home for their first game at Pauley Pavilion in 12 days, and they will impose their will on an inferior Washington State team while earning their 11th win in their last 12 games.
San Diego State (-1) at Utah State: 9:00 PM ET
If you are looking for an under-the-radar college basketball game between the two best teams in their conference, look no further than the Mountain West battle between San Diego State and Utah State. These two teams played a thriller in the last year’s conference tournament championship, and the Aggies would have been an NCAA-tournament bid stealer after their 59-56 upset of the fifth-ranked Aztecs. San Diego State will surely have revenge on their minds, but the value lies in the total once again.
These two teams are two of the best defensive teams in their conference, and the fact that they will play again two days from now should factor in heavily to how one views this game. Whereas these teams will use the second meeting to make all necessary adjustments, the first game will likely be more of a feeling-out process, with the advantage going to the defense.
San Diego State has played two such “doubleheaders†against Colorado State and Nevada this year, and each time the second game was an average of 8.5 points higher scoring than the first. Utah State has also played three back-to-backs against the same opponent this year, and the score was lower in their second matchup. In the back-to-backs against their first two opponents in San Jose State and Air Force, chalk those higher-scoring first games up to the fact that those two teams rank eighth and 11th respectively in the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The under has hit in four of Utah State’s last five games. This year’s San Diego State offense is not nearly as potent as last year’s squad, so the Aggies should again have no problem keeping the scoring down and the tempo to their liking.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.