Top College Basketball Picks Tuesday, January 12th (2020)
Now that the college football season is done and the NFL playoffs do not resume until the weekend, more eyes should be focused on tonight’s college basketball slate. We are treated to an action-packed schedule that features three ranked versus ranked games, including a top-10 battle in the Big Ten and a matchup of two Final Four contenders from the Big 12.
Here are three picks for Tuesday.
YTD: 52-45-1
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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Wisconsin at Michigan (-2): 7:00 PM ET
The Michigan Wolverines are one of eight Division I basketball teams that are undefeated. They have won their five conference games by an average of 14 PPG and have played just one home game decided by four points or less all year. However, the Big Ten is proving to be one of the deepest conferences in the country this year, and by the season’s end, even the best teams in the conference will likely have at least three or four conference losses. With the Wisconsin Badgers in town, Michigan is very likely to be dealt their first loss on the season.
Thus far, in five Big Ten games, Michigan rates as the worst in the conference with a 19.6% turnover rate. In addition, they rank 12th in the conference in defending the three-point line, allowing opponents to shoot better than 36% from deep. Conversely, Wisconsin turns the ball over at the second-lowest rate in Big Ten competition and is shooting 38% from three-point range through their first five conference games.
The Badgers do a tremendous job on the glass, limiting their opponents to a conference-best 21.3% offensive rebounding rate. Wisconsin has the personnel between Micah Potter and Nate Reuvers to limit Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson, which many teams have had trouble doing.
The underdog is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings between these schools. Give yourself a buffer zone by taking the two points, but I would not put anyone off wagering on Wisconsin’s money line for better value.
Miami (-2) at Boston College: 7:00 PM ET
This pick comes with the assumption that Miami will once again be without the services of Chris Lykes and Kameron McGusty, who between them have played in just one of Miami’s last six games. However, the fact that the Hurricanes are still 5-5 and are coming off an impressive road win at N.C. State without the services of their two best players. This suggests they should be able to secure another road win over a struggling Boston College team.
In the absence of Lykes and McGusty, Isaiah Wong has become a bonafide star averaging 17.5 PPG and shooting better than 46% from the field. Head coach Jim Larranaga has his guys competing at a very high level, though they are significantly undermanned. Four of their five losses have come by four points or less, mostly against stiff competition among the conference’s best. Boston College cannot be thought of as stiff competition as they are off to a 2-9 start. As long as Miami can emotionally get up for this game, they are clearly the more talented team, even if Lykes and McGusty are once again ruled out.
Alabama at Kentucky (-1): 9:00 PM ET
After starting the year as one of the country’s most disappointing teams, the Kentucky Wildcats appear to be hitting their stride. They have won three straight games after a 1-6 start, and their last victory, which was a convincing 18-point win on the road against Florida, was easily their most complete performance to date. The Wildcats will look to sustain that momentum against an Alabama team that may be overachieving to this point.
The Crimson Tide is a very streaky shooting team that can play with anyone in the country when their shots are falling. In their upset over Tennessee, Alabama shot 50% from three-point range, with John Petty going 4-for-4 from long range. They followed that effort with a 40% shooting percentage from deep against Florida and a 94-point effort against Auburn.
While Alabama has been hot offensively of late, the Kentucky defense they are about to face presents many unique challenges. The Wildcats’ length on the perimeter has held opponents to just 30.8% from three-point range. Kentucky ranks 16th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and is the best in the SEC in blocked shots and two-point percentage allowed.
Kentucky’s struggles for much of the beginning of the year resulted from poor shooting efforts. However, the Wildcats rank best in conference play with a 46.8% three-point shooting percentage.
As most Kentucky teams do, this year’s version is getting better as the season goes on. Freshmen Devin Askew and Brandon Boston look more comfortable with each game at the collegiate level. Kentucky’s overall balance with five players averaging in double figures is making them extremely hard to defend. Look for the Wildcats to cool the hot shooting of Alabama en route to their fourth-straight win.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.