Top College Basketball Picks Tuesday, January 19th (2021)
It cannot be understated how many challenges COVID-19 presents for sports bettors that handicap college basketball games. The virus has forced some teams to pause all activities for more than two weeks, while other teams have had to play four games in a given week to have enough games on their schedule. We have seen more teams play “back to back†games than ever before, and some games between teams have been scheduled with less than 48 hours’ notice. While hitting on 56% of your bets is usually the standard by which handicappers are deemed successful or unsuccessful, I would argue that anyone profitable in analyzing college basketball in these trying times should be acknowledged for a great season to date.
Here are three picks for Tuesday.
YTD: 60-54-1
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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Kansas State at Oklahoma (-13.5): 6:30 PM ET
The Oklahoma Sooners come in well-rested for this Big 12 battle, as they have not played since last Tuesday. Though the Sooners enter this contest having lost three of their last five games, those three losses were to the conference’s three best teams (Texas Tech, Baylor, and Kansas). Oklahoma has shown a penchant for feasting on the weaker teams in the conference, as evidenced by their latest 36-point win over TCU.
Oklahoma’s two losses against Texas Tech and Kansas were by a combined six points, which includes playing without Brady Manek and Jalen Hill against Kansas as they were forced to miss the game due to COVID-19 protocols. With a win over West Virginia on their resume, Oklahoma proved they deserve to be mentioned in the conference’s top tier and not just as another team below the conference’s elite. According to Sooners Wire, the team is expected to have Manek back for tonight’s game.
The Sooners get a chance to add to their resume when facing a Kansas State team that has struggled to a 5-9 start. The Wildcats are 1-5 in conference play, with their five losses coming by 16 PPG. Defensively, Kansas State is the worst team in the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage allowed. They allow the highest two-point percentage to opponents and are the Big 12’s worst three-point shooting team. All of that spells doom when facing a senior-laden Oklahoma team that has won four of the last five games at home in this series.
Butler at DePaul (-1.5): 7:00 PM ET
After beginning their season much later than the rest of the Big East teams due to COVID-19 complications, DePaul has struggled to a 2-4 start. They are still searching for their first conference win after being within one possession late in the second half of three of their four losses. The Blue Demons are on the cusp of breaking through, and they have a great opportunity to end their Big East losing streak against Butler tonight.
Butler ended a mini two-game conference losing streak with a thrilling come-from-behind overtime victory over Creighton in their last game. However, the Bulldogs have been a different team away from Hinkle Fieldhouse this year. Butler is 0-4 away from home and have lost those four games by an average of 13.8 PPG. Butler is 4-7 ATS this season and has covered just once in the last three games. The fifth-ranked Bulldogs lost by 13 at DePaul last year, and the Blue Demons are a good bet to secure a home win over Butler once again, though this time it will not be viewed as big of an upset.
Seton Hall at Villanova (OFF): 9:00 PM ET
The Villanova Wildcats are playing their first game since December 23rd after pausing all team activities since then due to COVID-19. Given how much Villanova’s offense relies on rhythm and perimeter shooting, a long layoff should have a big impact on how they score the basketball. When Villanova has had four or more days off this season, the under is 2-0. It will also take time for them to play their way into basketball shape once again, while Seton Hall has played four games since Villanova has last played. Given that the Pirates are also coming off a 10-day layoff, there is value in the under tonight.
The under is 4-1 in Seton Hall’s last five games and is 6-2 in their last eight conference games. Head coach Kevin Willard knows Jay Wright’s system inside and out, and his teams have done a good job of frustrating some of Villanova’s most efficient offense over the last few seasons. Seton Hall has been held to fewer than 80 points in six of their last eight meetings and has held them under 70 points three times in that span. Neither of these teams plays at a particularly fast tempo, with both ranked outside the top 240 in the country in adjusted tempo. Villanova has been held under 36% from three-point range in two of their last three meetings, and a poor shooting night from a rusty Wildcats squad should once again keep the scoring down tonight.
Lastly, Villanova may be without two starters if Caleb Daniels and Jermaine Samuels do not pass the necessary cardiovascular testing that is mandatory to clear athletes after testing positive for COVID-19. If Daniels and Samuels cannot go, that severely tests Villanova’s depth, and they will likely play at a much slower pace as a result.
Pick: UNDER (if the total is 138 or higher)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.