Top College Basketball Picks Tuesday, January 26th (2021)
It has been well-documented how much the Blue Bloods of the sport have struggled. Meanwhile, Gonzaga and Baylor, who have zero national championships between them, have played 29 games combined, and just three of them have been decided by single digits. It is not too early to start thinking about if this season will come down to the Bulldogs and Bears or the field.
Three of the sport’s biggest Blue Bloods are in action tonight, with Duke, Kentucky, and North Carolina all desperate for a win. Meanwhile, Drake looks to remain one of the country’s five unbeaten teams when they return from a long pause due to COVID-19 to face Missouri State.
Here are three picks for Tuesday.
YTD: 70-63-1
All odds via BettingPros consensus
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North Carolina (-1) at Pittsburgh: 7:00 PM ET
Don’t look now, but the North Carolina Tar Heels are playing outstanding basketball after a disappointing start to the season. After going 5-4 in their first nine games, the Tar Heels have rebounded to win five of their last six games. Their only loss in that span was a road game at Florida State who now looks like the conference’s best team.
The Pittsburgh Panthers have surprised many with their 4-2 start in conference play. However, they have yet to play any of the top three teams in the conference, and they lost their only game to someone ahead of them in the standings (Louisville). The Panthers are stepping up in class tonight and are catching the Tar Heels at the wrong time.
Pitt’s Justin Champagnie leads the ACC in scoring with 19.9 PPG and rebounding with 12.4 RPG. However, North Carolina will throw many bodies at him defensively, and the Tar Heels’ length on their massive front line should bother him. Though turnovers have plagued North Carolina early in the season, they have won the turnover battle in three of their last four games as freshman guards Caleb Love and Kerwin Walton get more comfortable in Roy Williams’ system.
North Carolina is just 2-6 ATS in conference games and is 0-3 ATS as road favorites. However, they are as dangerous as any ACC team at the moment and will avoid a letdown against a Pittsburgh team that has played a favorable conference schedule thus far.
Drake (-4) at Missouri State: 8:00 PM ET
Not only are the Drake Bulldogs 13-0 SU, but they are also 11-0 ATS (two of their games came against Division II opponents). It seemed nothing could stop them in the beginning part of the season, as they have three players averaging in double figures and are the top three-point shooting team in the country at 43.5%. However, the one great equalizer of the 2020-21 season is COVID-19, and the pandemic got the best of Drake, forcing them to pause team activities and endured a 22-day break since their last game. If anything can slow down this juggernaut, those factors are likely to do the trick.
Missouri State was actually predicted to finish ahead of Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference preseason poll. The Bears are off to a solid start of their own, as they are 9-1 overall and own a win over Northern Iowa, who was projected as the conference’s best team. Missouri State is the second-best team defending the three-point line in league play, which is vital to slowing down Drake’s offensive attack. The Bears allow opponents to shoot just 33.1% from the three-point line and rank in the top three in the conference in offensive and defensive efficiency. Missouri State should take advantage of Drake’s lack of an inside presence with 6’8″ senior Gaige Prim, who is averaging 16.7 PPG and 8.8 RPG. Prim is a great complementary piece to forward Isiaih Mosley, who is second in the country in scoring at 23.5 PPG.
Missouri State beat Drake 97-62 at home last year and would like nothing more than to hand the Bulldogs their first loss of the season. Look for the Bears to take advantage of an out-of-sync Drake team after their long layoff.
Butler at UConn (-8): 8:30 PM ET
The Uconn Huskies have lost two consecutive games as they start to feel the effects of being without leading scorer James Bouknight. Their attempts to control the tempo against St. John’s and Creighton failed, as ultimately, both teams’ fast-paced tempo got the best of the Huskies. However, the Butler Bulldogs play at the slowest tempo in league play, and that kind of slow pace will play right into UConn’s hands in this game. Instead of laying such a big number against a Butler team capable of upsetting anyone in the conference, the under looks like the smarter play.
Both UConn and Butler rank in the top half of the league in most defensive categories, including defensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, and three-point percentage allowed. Meanwhile, Butler’s offensive metrics consistently fall in the bottom half of the conference, and they are the league’s second-worst team in terms of offensive efficiency.
The total of 126 is one of the lowest you will see for a college basketball game, but this matchup will not be pretty on the eyes. The under is 6-1 in Butler’s last seven games. Look for a slow-paced half-court grind that will have both teams struggling to reach 60 points. Neither head coach would have it any other way.
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.