Top MLB Bet for August 16th
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Today’s play of the day is a battle between two of baseball’s absolute hottest teams. A pair of AL powerhouses placed in the top five of my power rankings will face off in the second game of a three-game series. The home team, arguably the best baseball, is favored. Unlike their opponents, they are sending a known quantity to the mound. However, there is still some trepidation as to whether or not they are the smart play. Let’s see what my analysis reveals.
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Cleveland Indians vs. New York Yankees
| Team | Record | Power Ranking | Runs Scored | Differential |
| Cleveland Indians | 73-49 | 4 | 4.75 | +96 |
| New York Yankees | 81-42 | 3 | 5.97 | +151 |
| Pitcher | Record | ERA | WHIP |
| Aaron Civale | 1-1 | 1.00 | 0.72 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | 8-6 | 4.64 | 1.26 |
Form
In a clash of titans, the Cleveland Indians will face the New York Yankees. Stuck at 31-31 on June 6, Cleveland currently sits 24 games over .500. Although positioned in the middle of the pack team in terms of runs scored, the offense exploded for 19 runs Thursday night at New York. The Indians have been rock solid on the road, where they’re 34-23. They have won three of their four meetings with the Yankees this season and 10 of their last 14 games overall.
One of MLB’s most impressive teams this season. the Yankees have scored an MLB-high 5.98 runs scored per game despite injuries to Giancarlo Stanton and a handful of their sluggers. Their record is tied for baseball’s best with the Dodgers, who are one of two teams with a superior run differential alongside the Astros. The Bronx Bombers are an outstanding 47-19 at home, and they have won 14 of their last 17 contests.
Cleveland will send impressive rookie hurler Aaron Civale to the mound while the Yankees deploy the talented, but inconsistent Masahiro Tanaka. Civale has been brilliant through his first three starts, two of which Cleveland won. The 24-year-old righty has struck out 18 batters in as many innings and allowed one run or fewer in each outing despite facing the Minnesota Twins and the Texas Rangers. In his only road start, Civale gave up one run over six innings against the division-leading Twins. He struck out five and allowed zero free passes.
Tanaka has had a roller-coaster season. He was in good form prior to the All-Star break, posting a 3.86 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 18 starts. He has since fallen apart, saddled with a horrendous 7.16 ERA and 1.53 WHIP because of a 12-run shellacking against the Boston Red Sox on July 25.
Tanaka has pitched much better at home this season, which gives him some hope in this matchup. He has a 3.29 ERA and 1.15 WHIP at Yankee Stadium. Tanaka has allowed two runs or fewer in 12 of his 24 starts. Unfortunately, he has surrendered 36 runs in his last 40 innings despite tossing eight scoreless frames last Sunday at Toronto. Amazingly, despite his struggles, the Yankees have won 10 of his last 11 starts.
Although Tanaka has faltered over the last month, New York holds the form edge due to its superior overall record.
Edge: New York Yankees
Trends
There are some intriguing trends for this contest. The Indians have won their last four Friday games and five of their last six Game 2s of a series. They have won seven of their last eight games against right-handed starting pitchers. Impressively, the Indians have claimed five of their last six road games against teams with a home winning percentage above .600. Cleveland has won 20 of its last 27 road games and 21 of its last 29 games following a win. The Indians have gone 40-17 in their last 57 games overall. Finally, they have won eight of their last 11 games against teams with a winning record.
New York has won 42 of its last 55 home games. It has triumphed in 18 of its last 26 Friday games and 13 of the last 16 Game 2s of a series. The Yankees have won 59 of their last 78 home contests against teams with a winning record. They have conquered an impressive 20 of their last 27 against starters with a WHIP lower than 1.15. They have emerged victorious in 41 of their last 57 home games against right-handed starters. Finally, they have won 33 of their last 47 bouts against teams with winning records.
Despite his recent struggles, the Yankees have been explosive in Tanaka’s recent starts. Behind a sensational offense and bullpen, they have won five of his last six Friday starts and four of his past five starts against teams with a winning record. The Yankees have won 13 of his last 18 starts against the AL Central and 10 of his last 14 home starts against teams with a winning record. New York has secured the W in 40 of his last 56 home starts. Civale has only made three starts in the majors and does not qualify for any trends. These two teams are even in the team trends department.
Edge: Even
Line
The line for this contest has already started to move. It opened at -146 for the Yankees and currently sits at -156 with a -150 line at PointsBet. The underdog in this contest looks like a tremendous potential value. This is especially true when taking last night’s decimation into account. The Indians have won three of four against the Yankees this season. They are sending a relatively unknown pitcher to the mound but are facing a 2019 All-Star in the middle of a serious funk.
The Yankees are indeed the better team who have the more proven pitcher toeing the rubber, but pitcher form factors into the equation. New York is running into a red-hot squad, so it doesn’t look the part of a -156 favorite after Thursday’s loss. It is entirely possible that this line was set to attract losing money on the team that solicits high volume from casual bettors. Take the plus money and lay a unit on the suddenly explosive Indians.
Pick: Cleveland Indians (+134)
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. Raju currently sits at 36-27-2 on the season. For more from Raju, check out his archive, and follow him @FantasyContext.