Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Friday, June 24 (2022)
We’re heading into the weekend! We had fun with our same-game parlay content over the week. But now it’s time to hit some straight bets.
There are plenty of new matchups to choose from. Here are my top three bets for tonight’s MLB slate.
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians will start a home series against the Red Sox with Cal Quantrill on the mound. Quantrill has had a 5.33 xFIP in the last 30 days with just a 14.5 percent strikeout rate. He’s also earning just a 40.6 percent ground ball rate in that time frame while allowing line drives nearly 21 percent of the time.
Lefties have a wOBA of .370 against Quantrill in the last 30 days, while righties have a .192 ISO against Quantrill in the last 30 days. He struggles against both sides of the plate in different ways.
The Red Sox haven’t been consistent against righties in that time frame but still have a .337 collectively as a projected lineup against righties in the last 30 days with a 22.8 percent line drive rate.
On the other hand, Nick Pivetta will get the start for the Red Sox. He also has a high xFIP in the last 30 days, at 5.15, but has earned a strong 26.5 percent strikeout rate while keeping line drives down to 17.3 percent. That’ll keep him out of trouble. Give me the Red Sox.
Bet: Red Sox (-120 at DraftKings)
Washington Nationals vs. Texas Rangers
The Nationals will pitch Paolo Espino for tonight’s opener against the Rangers. Espino has had a 4.71 xFIP in the last 30 days while walking 9.1 percent of batters. However, he’s escaped damage thanks to a BABIP of .189 and a line drive rate of 15.8 percent.
Still, that .189 BABIP seems pretty unsustainable, knowing Espino has allowed hard contact at about a 45 percent rate in that same 30-day time span.
The Rangers are hitting grounders at a 29.7 percent rate, and line drives at 26.9 percent of the time when facing off against righties in the last 30 days with their projected lineup. Espino is going to struggle in this one.
However, the same could be said about Dane Dunning of the Rangers. Dunning has a 4.84 xFIP with low strikeouts and high walks. He’s also struggled against lefties, giving up a .401 wOBA and ISO of .221 against his last 83 lefties faced. The Nationals will likely have six lefties in the lineup, including Juan Soto and Josh Bell.
I’m grabbing the Over 9 in this one.
Bet: Over 9 (-115 at DraftKings)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Adrian Houser will take the mound for the Brewers in this interleague matchup. Houser has a 5.22 xFIP in the last 30 days while also allowing a BABIP of .337. The strikeouts have stayed low while the walks have crept up a bit. He’s also allowing a 22.7 percent line drive rate over the last 30 days.
He’ll take on a Blue Jays lineup that has a .200 ISO and wOBA of .364 in the last 30 days against righties. This same lineup has kept their ground ball rate under 40 percent while also hitting line drives over 25 percent of the time. Houser will be in trouble against the Blue Jays.
Meanwhile, Alex Manoah will take the hill for the Blue Jays. He’s been much more consistent with a 4.13 xFIP in the last 30 days. Against righties, the Brewers have a .293 wOBA with their projected lineup and just one player averaging more than a .311 wOBA in their lineup.
Manoah isn’t facing the Yankees. He’s facing the Brewers. Take the Blue Jays on the moneyline.
Bet: Blue Jays (-155 at DraftKings)
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