Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Monday, August 29th (2022)
As we begin a new week, the two teams with the longest current active losing streaks in Major League Baseball may surprise you. The San Francisco Giants and Chicago White Sox each have lost four straight games. Thus, a season after the Giants won 107 games and the White Sox ran away with the American League Central division, it is becoming increasingly less likely we will see either team in the playoffs this year.
Here are our best bets for Monday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins RL
The Dodgers are 4-1 against the Marlins this year, and in those four wins, they have averaged 7.4 runs per game and outscored Miami by 26 runs. L.A.’s run differential has been on another level all season and now stands at +285 entering tonight. That is better than the subsequent two best run differentials in the National League combined (+265 between the Mets and Braves). And for historical perspective, one of the best teams of all time, the 1998 New York Yankees, finished with a +309 run differential. Since the third week of June, the Dodgers have outscored opponents by an average of 2.7 runs per game.
Things should continue to trend in that direction today as the Dodgers have a significant starting pitching edge. Tony Gonsolin is 16-1 with a 2.10 ERA. And while his 3.11 xERA suggests he has been fortunate to this point, it still ranks in the top 13 among all qualified starting pitchers. Conversely, Miami’s Pablo Lopez (8-8, 3.66) has a 6.00 ERA in his last seven starts. Lopez has pitched past the sixth inning once in his previous 11 starts and faces a Dodgers lineup that is second in slugging, wOBA, and wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Even at -140 odds, laying the -1.5 runs with the Dodgers seems like a steal.
Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers RL (-140 at DraftKings)
Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins O/U
Entering the weekend, Minnesota was amid a six-game losing streak, and many started to question if it would ever hit again, as it totaled 12 runs during the skid. However, the Twins’ bats woke up in a home sweep against the Giants, scoring 20 runs over the weekend. It has a great chance of keeping that success going against a putrid Red Sox pitching staff.
Over the last 30 days, the Red Sox’ 5.03 team ERA is third-worst in baseball, and their 5.52 bullpen ERA in that span ranks 29th. Brayan Bello (0-3, 7.36) takes the mound today and is seemingly hanging onto his job by a thread. The average wOBA among all 30 MLB teams is .316, and Bello has allowed a .414 rate. Additionally, he struggles with command as his 11.1% BB% is well above the league average, as is his 41.7 hard-hit percentage.
Minnesota counters with Dylan Bundy (7-6, 4.56), who is on pace for a career-low in strikeout percentage (17.0%) and a career-high xBA (.254). The Red Sox have averaged just under six runs per game over the last four games, which has us confident in the over cashing again, as it is 5-1-1 in the previous seven meetings between these teams.
Bet: Red Sox-Twins OVER 9 Runs (+100 at DraftKings)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.