Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Monday, July 4th (2022)
Happy Fourth of July to all! I hope your holiday is filled with barbeques, friends, family, fireworks, and winning bets. We start the week with a holiday version of our three best bets that involve a moneyline play, an alternate runline play involving one of the hottest pitchers in baseball, and a runline play in a division rivalry where the favorites are in a revenge spot.
Here are our best bets for Monday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles ML
Before their latest series against the Twins, the Baltimore Orioles had been 29-0 when leading entering the ninth inning. Had it not been for two blown ninth-inning leads on Friday and Saturday, the Orioles would have walked out of Minnesota with a three-game sweep of the first-place Twins.
Baltimore is playing much better than the 52-110 team it was last season, and that has much to do with improved starting pitching. Though they rank 23rd in starting pitching ERA, they are much better from a WAR perspective, ranking 19th in the league. Today they send Dean Kremer (2-1, 1.29) to the mound, and he has allowed just one earned run in the last 23.2 innings. That is an incredible feat for a young pitcher, especially since three of the four starts covering that span were on the road.
Texas’ Dane Dunning (1-6, 4.09) is 0-5 with a 5.58 ERA in eight road starts, so we do not expect him to be able to match zeros with Kremer.
Bet: Baltimore Orioles ML (-115 at DraftKings)
Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros RL
Houston’s Justin Verlander (10-3, 2.03) has endured an up-and-down season thus far, though the “ups†have far outweighed the “downs.†Verlander ripped through April with a 1.73 ERA in four starts. However, between May 27 and June 18, Verlander had three of five starts where he allowed at least three earned runs, and his ERA jumped from 1.22 to 2.30 in that stretch. Since then, Verlander proved he is “the King of New York), holding the Yankees and Mets to one earned run and six hits in 15 innings. By comparison, a date with the Royals, who rank 24th in wRC+ and 28th in slugging, should feel like a walk in the park.
Houston has the league’s longest active winning streak at six games. Thus, we look for more value with this runline play, as we expect the Astros to earn their seventh consecutive win convincingly.
Bet: Houston Astros -1.5 Runs (-125 at DraftKings)
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers RL
In some of the most surprising results of the season so far, the Rockies have played the Dodgers in two three-game series and took two out of three games each time. However, both of those series were played at Coors Field, and the Rockies are a much different team away from home, as they are one of just four teams that are at least 12 games under .500 on the road.
Los Angeles is 30-14 against teams under .500, and one of those wins was in Julio Urias’ last start, which happened to come against the Rockies. Urias has allowed six earned runs in 7.1 innings against Colorado this year, but Dodger Stadium is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball and plays much differently than Coors Field.
Los Angeles has is coming off a series where it took three of four games from San Diego. We expect them to win for the 51st time in the last 70 home meetings with their division rival Rockies.
Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 Runs (-130 at DraftKings)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.