Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Saturday, May 21 (2022)
We went 2-1 with our best bets on May 20. Let’s look to continue that kind of success with today’s slate in the MLB.
Not only do we get a full slate of games today, but we’ve also got a doubleheader, giving us an additional game to look at. Anyway, here are my top three bets for May 21.
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins
The Miami Marlins are sending out Elieser Hernandez. The right-hander has been an automatic fade recently, with his xFIP of 6.41 in the last 30 days. Hernandez is only earning 17.6% of strikeouts in those 30 days and continues to struggle when it comes to inducing ground balls.
In the 30-day time frame, Hernandez has allowed lefties to hit a .393 wOBA and ISO of .375. Meanwhile, righties aren’t far behind with a .343 wOBA and ISO of .226.
The Braves don’t have the most qualified offense this season, but against Hernandez, any offense will do the trick.
Kyle Wright will take the mound for the Braves on the flip side. He’s got a 3.78 xFIP in the last 30 days with 27.1% strikeouts. He will walk a couple of batters, but ultimately, he has kept the power down and can get out of trouble by inducing ground balls and strikeouts. The Marlins are really thin when it comes to offensive production against righties.
Bet: Braves (-140 at DraftKings)
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
Tonight, the Twins and Royals will send out their consistent starters. Joe Ryan will get the call for the Twins with his 2.39 ERA, while Brad Keller will start for the Royals with his 2.89 ERA.
Ryan is striking out 23.1% of batters in the last 30 days and has been able to keep walks down to 7.4% in that time frame. Lefties are hitting for some power against Ryan, but no lefty in the Royals lineup has consistently hit righties for power this year anyway.
On the other hand, Keller has kept walks down to 4.8% in the last 30 days and is earning 42.4% of ground balls and giving up just 19% of line drives. The Twins aren’t known for hitting ground balls against righties, but if Keller can start inducing ground balls against the Twins, offense will be hard to come by.
I’ll happily take the under with these two pitchers on the mound.
Bet: Under 7.5 (+100 at DraftKings)
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies
The Mets and Rockies will be playing a doubleheader today in Colorado. It will be cold and a bit wet after Colorado was snowed in yesterday.
I expect both of these teams to get a little tired in the second game.
Trevor Williams will take the mound for the Mets. In the last 30 days, he has had a 3.48 xFIP with 24.6% strikeouts and 3.5% of walks. He’s been a lot better than most people expected.
The Rockies will pitch lefty Austin Gomber, who has a 3.88 xFIP in the last 30 days with 23% strikeouts and 6.2% walks. Both starters match up well against these two lineups, and both have xFIPs below 4 in the last 30 days. Let’s take the under.
Bet: Under 10 (-115 at Caesars)
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