Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Saturday, May 7 (2022)
Usually, on a Saturday, we get a full slate of games. Today, we’re getting a full slate of games and then some. By that, I mean we’ll have some doubleheaders to get excited about! Still, some east coast games could get the ax again today, so keep your eye out for weather forecasts before making wagers.
Here are my three favorite bets of the day.
Brewers Moneyline (-120)
Max Fried will take the mound for the Brewers tonight. He’s been terrific to start the season but has allowed 23% of line drives. The Brewers have been one of the best power teams in baseball and have an ISO of .253 with over 20% line drives against lefties this season. Milwaukee can absolutely hit a couple of Fried’s pitches out of the yard.
I’ll side with the former Cy Young winner in a low-scoring game with Corbin Burnes on the mound for the Brewers. This season, Burnes is striking out 35.8% of batters and will take on a Braves lineup that is striking out 28.5% of the time against righties. I also trust the Brewers bullpen a little bit more as the game gets deeper.
Bet: Brewers (-120 at DraftKings)
Marlins Moneyline (+105)
Pablo Lopez has been outstanding this season. He has a 3.12 xFIP with 28.3% strikeouts and just 5.7 walks on the season. He’s allowing 27.1% line drives but won’t have to worry too much against the Padres, who rarely hit line drives against righties, to begin with. The Padres’ lineup has a .135 ISO and wOBA of .306 with nearly 45% ground balls against righties.
Lopez should have success. Meanwhile, Sean Manaea will take the hill for the Padres. He’s got a 4.75 xFIP with 9.1% walks to start the season, and lefties even have a .250 ISO against him this season. It’s not guaranteed that we’ll see Jazz Chisholm of Jesus Sanchez, but the Marlins lineup should be good enough to string some runs on the board against Manaea.
Bet: Marlins (+105 at DraftKings)
Rays Over 1.5 F5 Team Total (-135)
The Rays have a wOBA of .349 against lefties this season with the projected lineup. Tonight, they’ll take on Marco Gonzales, who has a 4.82 xFIP with just 16.8% strikeouts on the season.
Lefties have a .377 wOBA and ISO of .182, but righties have a .371 wOBA and ISO of .323. The Rays usually like to play into advantages and should have a primarily right-handed lineup. That bodes well for Tampa Bay as the Rays have hit over 31% of line drives against lefties this season with the projected lineup.
The Rays are deep at the top of the order, and two runs in five innings against Marco Gonzales is very doable.
Bet: Rays F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-135 at DraftKings)
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