Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Sunday, April 17 (2022)
With all three picks yesterday, we were about even on the day. The record was 1-1-1, which is fine. In such a long season, you’ll have bad days and good days and some days where everything just stays even and flat.
Let’s look to finish off the weekend with some profit. Please remember that many players could sit and get rest on a Sunday day game. I’m handicapping these games before lineups are released. Please check lineups before placing the wager!
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardians Moneyline (-125)
The Cleveland Guardians started the season red hot. The Guardians are a new team, with a new logo and just overall new excitement. However, there’s also the Giants, who rarely get talked about and just continue to win. The Giants are currently 6-2 on the season and don’t get the credit they deserve.
Alex Wood will take the mound for the second time this season. Wood’s first start wasn’t terrific against the Padres, as he allowed five hits and two runs in 4.1 innings. However, Wood still had six strikeouts to just one walk, and he also has an excellent track record dating back to last season.
Wood, dating back to last season, has a 3.65 xFIP with 26% strikeouts and 6.7% walks. He’s also getting nearly 50% ground balls.
On the other hand, the Giants will face Aaron Civale, who has a 4.64 xFIP dating back to last season. Civale wasn’t much better in his start and will have to take on a Giants lineup that destroyed righties dating back to last season. The projected lineup has a .242 ISO and woBA of .361 against righties using previous year’s and this year’s stats combined.
Back the Giants to win big.
Bet: Giants ML (-125 at DraftKings)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox First Five Team Total (1.5, -150)
I know the -150 isn’t that pretty, but this wager just makes too much sense. The Chicago White Sox will send out Vince Velasquez, who has a 5.24 xFIP through last year and this year combined, and he’s also walked 11.5% of batters in that time frame.
He went four innings and allowed just two hits and one run against the Mariners in four innings. But he also walked three and struck out just two batters while getting 10 fly balls and just two ground balls.
Velasquez won’t stay that lucky moving forward, and he will face a bunch of really good lefties in this Rays lineup, including Brandon Lowe and Ji-Man Choi.
Take the Rays to score two runs in the first five innings.
Bet: Rays Over 1.5 F5 TT (-150 at DraftKings)
Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies F5 Run Line (-0.5, -115)
The Colorado Rockies are 6-2 to start the season. The offense looks terrific, and the pitching has done enough. Arguably, the Rockies’ best pitcher, Austin Gomber, will take the hill for today’s game.
Gomber has a 4.51 xFIP dating back to last season but also struck out 23.2% of batters. He will go up against a Cubs projected lineup with a .129 ISO and wOBA of .326. There’s simply no power in this Cubs lineup outside of Wilson Contreras and Frank Schwindel.
On the other hand, the Cubs are pitching Drew Smyly, a lefty with an xFIP of 4.66 dating back to last season. He’s known for giving up the long ball and will have to face plenty of huge power bats, including Connor Joe, Kris Bryant, and C.J. Cron. All three of those guys are deadly against lefties dating back to last season.
Back the Rockies.
Bet: Rockies -0.5 F5 (-115 at DraftKings)
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