Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Thursday, August 25th (2022)
Another 2-1 day yesterday and cashing the Guardians as underdogs on the moneyline gave us nice results and put us in the black for the week. We hope to keep the momentum going with a third straight profitable day.
Here are our best bets for Thursday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Mariners ML
When Cleveland was stagnant at the trade deadline compared to Minnesota, who added what were thought of as key pieces at the time, the Guardians were an afterthought regarding their prospects of winning the AL Central. Now the Guardians are a season-high ten games over .500 after an impressive mini-two-game sweep of the Padres and are a season-high four games clear of the second-place Twins and White Sox in the division.
Triston McKenzie (9-9, 3.11) allowed two earned runs in his last start and did not earn the win as he left the game with his team trailing. However, in many ways, it was the most dominant start of his career. He struck out eight of the final ten hitters he faced while totaling a career-high 14 K’s and zero walks in seven innings against the White Sox. And when he is not striking people out, his .258 BABIP in the second half of the season ranks in the top 15 of all American League pitchers.
As hot as McKenzie is, Seattle’s Marco Gonzales (8-12, 4.08) is anything but. Gonzalez has pitched to a 5.77 ERA since the All-Star break, which ranks in the bottom ten of all pitchers. In addition, Gonzales has a whopping .333 BABIP allowed in that span, which is trouble considering he has trouble putting hitters away. He ranks in the second percentile in strikeout rate and the fourth in whiff percentage.
Cleveland is 5-0 in its last five series openers and has won eight of its last nine road games. The Mariners being at home is likely the only reason Cleveland is not a more significant favorite. Given the vast starting pitching edge the Guardians have in this matchup, we are getting great value on their moneyline odds.
Bet: Cleveland Guardians ML (-120 at DraftKings)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs Team Total O/U
It is hard to bet against St. Louis, as they just recently broke off eight straight wins, a streak that was snapped in a doubleheader against Chicago. However, even if the Cardinals are the more talented team in this series finale, Chicago’s offense will likely succeed against St. Louis’ Dakota Hudson (6-6, 4.33).
Hudson is amid a rough stretch where he has not earned a win (0-2) and pitched to a 5.50 ERA in his previous seven starts. His xERA (5.28) is almost a full run higher than his actual ERA, and those numbers will not improve if he remains in the sixth percentile or worse in xBA, K%, whiff percentage, and chase rate.
The over is 3-2-2 in Chicago’s last six games against divisional opponents, and we expect the Cubs to do their part in ensuring it cashes again. There is no line yet posted as oddsmakers tend to wait until closer to game time to figure out the weather pattern at Wrigley Field, but we would play Chicago’s team total all the way up to 4.5. We will update the odds when they become available.
Bet: Chicago Cubs Team Total: Play up to OVER 4.5 (OFF at DraftKings)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.