Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Thursday, July 21st (2022)
The Thursday after the All-Star Game usually has a small slate of MLB games, as the action does not typically ramp up again until Friday. The Dodgers and Giants were the only originally scheduled game today. However, in an attempt to make up some of the 91 games postponed by the early-season lockout, the Yankees and Astros, as well as the Tigers and Athletics, were forced to play doubleheaders and a single game between the Rangers and Marlins was also added.
From a betting perspective, a six-game slate sure beats just one game on the schedule, so let’s kick off the second half of the season with two wagers.
Here are our best bets for Thursday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros: Cristian Javier O/U Outs Recorded
As of early Thursday morning, it isn’t easy to analyze the Yankees-Astros doubleheader, as the only thing we know about the starting pitching matchups is that Cristian Javier will start the opener for Houston. However, that information is good enough to handicap his player prop odds, which has us leaning towards one we like.
Yankees fans will not forget Javier’s June start against them in the Bronx when he struck out 13 over seven innings as part of a combined no-hitter. Big strikeout totals have been a large part of Javier’s repertoire this season, as he has a 35.2% K rate. While strikeouts minimize the damage batters can do since they are not putting the ball in play, it can also work against a pitcher as it gets their pitch count up. As a result, Javier has averaged 4.2 innings per appearance, has lasted five or more innings nine times in his 13 starts and has four quality starts out of the 13.
With this game being part of a doubleheader, Astros manager Dusty Baker will likely push Javier as far as he can go, knowing it will be essential to save his bullpen for the night game. In addition, Javier has a 2.54 xERA compared to his actual 3.22 ERA, suggesting he has suffered a bit of unluckiness in his starts. Thus, we look for Javier to quiet New York’s bats again and to record at least 16 outs in the process.
Bet: Cristian Javier OVER 15.5 Outs Recorded (+100 at DraftKings)
Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics ML (Game 1)
The Tigers have lost four straight and eight of their last ten games entering today’s doubleheader against the Athletics, but that sort of thing would worry us more had the team not just gotten three days off to recharge their batteries.
Detroit looks to end its losing streak against the worst home team by far in the majors, as Oakland is just 11-31 through 42 home games. And while the Tigers are 18 games under .500 at 37-55, they are a much more respectable 13-16 when you remove the 63 games they have played against teams with a winning record.
Tarik Skubal (6-8, 3.93) ranks 17th among qualified pitchers with a 9.1 K/9 rate and faces an Oakland team that strikes out at the 18th-highest rate (8.4 times per game). The A’s also rank dead-last in batting average (.211), slugging (.332), and OBP (.272).
Oakland is 11-33 as underdogs of +135 or more in its last 44 games, making Detroit’s moneyline odds good value to back in this matchup.
Bet: Detroit Tigers ML (-150 at DraftKings)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.