Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Tuesday, August 2nd (2022)
Today’s 6:00 p.m. ET MLB trade deadline makes for one of the most highly anticipated days of the regular season as contenders look to pull the final deals that put them in a position to win the World Series. We saw big names like Josh Hader and Frankie Montas dealt yesterday, and in less than 24 hours, we will know if even bigger names like Juan Soto and Shohei Ohtani are on the move behind him. Regarding the trade of Hader, Sarah Langs tweeted why that is not a move one often sees at the trade deadline.
Here are our best bets for Tuesday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins ML
The Reds will never be able to recover from a historically bad 3-22 start, as their season was over before it got started. However, they have gone from a bettor’s auto-fade to a team that could still return decent betting value due to a largely unnoticed turnaround. Cincinnati is a respectable 38-39 in its last 77 games, and that .494 winning percentage extrapolated over an entire season would have them sitting roughly 4.5 games out of a wild card spot. Oddsmakers still value Cincinnati based on a poor April and May but are not giving it enough credit for a winning July record (14-12).
The Marlins are the better team according to the standings, but their inconsistencies have doomed them much of the last month. Miami has won back-to-back games just once since July 6. Its offense is primarily to blame, as they are ranked 23rd in the league with an 89 wRC+ over the last 14 days. Conversely, Cincinnati ranks in the top ten in that metric in that time frame.
Cincinnati’s Graham Ashcraft (4-2, 4.64) has not pitched as poorly as his numbers suggest, based on his 3.70 xERA (3.70). He faces a Marlins team that has lost seven consecutive home games against right-handed starting pitchers and one that is ten games under .500 (36-46) against right-handed starting pitchers for the season.
Bet: Cincinnati Reds ML (+110 at DraftKings)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers ML
Similar to how the Reds are still undervalued for a poor start to the season, the Orioles are still perceived similarly to the team that lost 110 games last year. Yet, for some reason, oddsmakers are still down on Baltimore despite them going 52-51 through 103 games while playing in the best division in baseball.
Baltimore’s Jordan Lyles (7-8, 4.56) has led his team to four wins in his last five starts and allowed more than three earned runs once in six July starts. Thus, the Orioles own a significant edge in the starting pitching matchup against Texas’ struggling Spencer Howard (2-2, 5.93). The Rangers are 2-5 in Spencer Howard’s previous seven starts. We look for Baltimore to find success offensively against Howard, even after the trade of Trey Mancini, as Howard’s xBA (.264), xSLG (.495), hard hit percentage (38%), and K% (18.8%) are all the worst of his young three-year career thus far.
The Rangers are winless in their last nine games against teams .500 or better, while Baltimore is 8-0 in its previous eight games against AL West teams. In addition, Baltimore is 17-7 in its previous 24 games and 11-2 in its last 13 against teams with a losing record. Thus, sign us up for being able to get behind the Orioles at plus-money odds.
Bet: Baltimore Orioles ML (+110 at DraftKings)
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox O/U
If you want to watch a clinic on how to neutralize one of the best offenses in the game, watch tape of Brady Singer’s last outing against the Yankees. Singer held New York to one hit over seven innings while striking out ten and has now amassed 22 strikeouts over his previous 13 innings. Singer should have success against a White Sox lineup that has struggled against right-handed pitching all year, as their 94 wRC+ (ranks 22nd) against righties is much worse than their third-ranked wRC+ (122) against southpaws.
Many will look to the over in this game, citing Lucas Giolito’s drastic home and road splits. Giolito (6-6, 5.14) is 2-4 with a 6.28 ERA in seven home starts and 4-2 with a 4.37 ERA in 11 road starts. However, he held Kansas City to two runs in five innings in an earlier start this season, and he has an excellent chance to improve upon poor home numbers against a Royals lineup that ranks 21st in slugging and 16th in wOBA over the last 14 days.
The under is 22-7-1 in the last 30 meetings between these teams, and we expect it to cash again.
Bet: Royals-White Sox UNDER 8.5 Runs (-115 at DraftKings)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.