Top MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Tuesday, August 30th (2022)
We made two plays yesterday out of a small eight-game slate, but one of the wagers was voided when Dodgers starting pitcher Tony Gonsolin was scratched before his start, landing on the IL with a right forearm strain. We are back to generate some momentum today with three picks from a full 15-game slate.
Here are our best bets for Tuesday’s MLB action. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians ML
Just a half-game separates these teams in the standings, and one could make a legit argument that the Orioles have played better baseball than the Guardians this year, given the AL East is a more competitive division top-to-bottom than the AL Central. So while we have all the respect in the world for what Baltimore has accomplished this year, the starting pitching edge Cleveland enjoys in this matchup is too good to pass up.
Cal Quantrill (10-5, 3.59) ranks in the top 20 of all qualified starting pitchers with a 2.25 ERA over the last 30 days, while his .193 BABIP in that span ranks fifth. Cleveland has won the previous nine times Quantrill has toed the rubber, including outscoring its opponents 23-4 in his previous three starts.
The Guardians have also won five of their last six series openers and are 21-8 in the previous 29 meetings against the Orioles. We are using both of those trends to support Cleveland tonight.
Bet: Cleveland Guardians ML (-155 at DraftKings)
Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves RL
Atlanta swept a four-game road series in Colorado in early June, winning by a combined score of 30-16. Some naysayers will claim that the Braves were fortunate as two of those games went to extra innings. But given how polar opposites tonight’s two starting pitchers have been lately, it will be an accomplishment if the Rockies can keep this one close.
Max Fried (12-4, 2.52) is 7-0 in his last nine starts against teams under .500. In those starts, his ERA is 1.74, and one was when he allowed two hits in eight scoreless innings at Coors Field.
His counterpart, Jose Urena (2-5, 5.98), has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball the last month. He has pitched to a 9.19 ERA in his previous seven starts, and he ranks in the fifth percentile or worse in xBA, K%, and whiff percentage.
How does Colorado keep this close?
Bet: Atlanta Braves -1.5 Runs (-165 at DraftKings)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks F5 O/U
Zac Gallen’s (9-2, 2.66) last start is the perfect example of why bettors should look into first-five innings lines when two stud starting pitchers oppose each other.
The Diamondbacks took a 5-3 loss in Gallen’s last start, despite the ace extending his shutout streak to 27.1 innings. Gallen exited with a 1-0 lead after the sixth inning, with his day done after allowing three hits and striking out six. Thus, seven runs were scored over the final four innings, and the full-game over ended up cashing after a pitcher’s duel through six innings.
Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola is 9-10 with a 3.08 ERA this year and has a 0.95 WHIP in his last seven starts. In addition, his 2.58 xFIP over the previous 30 days ranks fourth among all qualified starting pitchers.
Nola and Gallen will match zeroes early, so there is no need to sweat the total out when the bullpens take over.
Bet: Phillies-Diamondbacks F5 UNDER 3.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.